Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f985cdf3f8fab6368ad8eb1b9a80d87efff1ad791339c46ce9580e41fafbe3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 47c | 3,017$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.92 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked Yes | 65c | 1,656$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.22 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x563e…a157backed No | 56c | 1,039$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 39c | 999.99$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 59c | 958.38$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.77 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 52c | 873.99$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.11 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked No | 49c | 786.92$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.88 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 700$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed Yes | 75c | 685$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 49c | 629.9$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.97 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 42c | 488.36$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.84 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…ab06backed Yes | 34c | 375.33$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes | 52c | 350.2$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.75 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 56c | 298$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 223.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 70c | 199.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.99 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 41c | 196.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 58c | 188.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…736fbacked Yes | 57c | 182.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 59c | 168.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…e439backed Yes | 64c | 155.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…2241backed Yes | 65c | 155.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 66c | 131.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 119.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed No | 38c | 101.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…4465backed Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 72c | 94.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 43c | 91.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 54c | 84.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb08a…4d30backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 72c | 76.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…34a1backed Yes | 54c | 73.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 64.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…691dbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…0665backed Yes | 35c | 50.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 50c | 47.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…da67backed Yes | 63c | 47.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 58c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…fb8cbacked Yes | 54c | 46.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…0b8dbacked Yes | 67c | 37.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 60c | 36.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 40c | 33.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 57c | 30.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed Yes | 43c | 29.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked No | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3d…e38cbacked Yes | 61c | 22.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 46c | 22.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…078abacked Yes | 56c | 21.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…b81bbacked Yes | 57c | 19.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $4.35 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.40 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.45 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.75 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.00 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.10 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.