Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x228699193173c0ca040592790a8c3adf1106ed5ab542d3397afb119c0eb2d9c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 38c | 4,730$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,909.64 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…c61abacked Yes | 71c | 3,148$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,243.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x563e…a157backed No | 31c | 3,100$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,140.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 65c | 1,421$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.2 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 80c | 965.35$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.44 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked No | 28c | 678.26$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.26 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…bfd2backed No | 41c | 537.9$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1579…cc72backed Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked No | 36c | 404.15$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.67 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d85…0d82backed No | 41c | 347.26$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 71c | 331.54$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 41c | 303.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.04 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…4465backed Yes | 69c | 275$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…3ff9backed No | 12c | 265.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.51 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked Yes | 71c | 263.85$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.09 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 8c | 250.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.94 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc9…a0a3backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 69c | 174.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1795…194cbacked No | 16c | 160.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +515.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 149.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…736fbacked Yes | 74c | 135.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…34a1backed Yes | 74c | 134.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 15c | 128.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.51 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 121.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.69 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…b57ebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…d131backed Yes | 70c | 93.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 65c | 92.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 62c | 81.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…1a95backed No | 38c | 79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 68.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 25c | 67.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…9253backed Yes | 76c | 65.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…bfb8backed Yes | 76c | 65.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 50c | 57.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 76c | 54.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…ab06backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…308fbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…0b8dbacked Yes | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…7781backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 48c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…ff00backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…686fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $4.35 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.40 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.45 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.75 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.00 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.10 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.