Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c1fba11dac52d10d6a37470188e949a3f7502f8ee84232f525ec5d29a7a8790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes | 24c | 4,794$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.97 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…523fbacked No | 77c | 4,096$3,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.33 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 72c | 2,726$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.45 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9b7bbacked No | 69c | 2,451$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.98 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed Yes | 34c | 2,281$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked Yes | 24c | 2,153$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.74 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…e931backed Yes | 36c | 2,041$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.95 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 864.15$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 70c | 818.99$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.08 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 30c | 699.97$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.77 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 63c | 650$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…ab06backed Yes | 24c | 635$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Yes | 35c | 568.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x060e…ac12backed Yes | 22c | 516.36$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563e…a157backed No | 67c | 501.15$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 17c | 453.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 24c | 406.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…d871backed Yes | 22c | 400.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +418.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 43c | 380$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.3 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…505fbacked Yes | 29c | 347.38$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce5…d3fcbacked No | 76c | 229.76$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…e8a9backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…c97fbacked No | 74c | 210.72$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 74c | 208.17$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked No | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 33c | 191.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 31c | 185.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 23c | 133.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e1…9a45backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 117$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 16c | 102$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 65c | 101.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…736fbacked Yes | 28c | 88.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 74c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…b57ebacked Yes | 28c | 84.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c40…445cbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 41cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 36c | 82.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…4465backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…da67backed Yes | 27c | 73.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 20c | 72.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed No | 77c | 71.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…2241backed Yes | 31c | 64.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…d231backed No | 73c | 56.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 53.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…d131backed No | 70c | 51.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…ec61backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…03cfbacked No | 79c | 41.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…0b8dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 40c | 31.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…f131backed No | 78c | 20.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…7937backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…d825backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $4.35 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.40 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.45 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.75 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.00 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.10 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.