Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a0d5d7cfe1751362abf07b0d4caa5dcf5b817fad7f7b9ff4de9f395cecdab7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 18c | 651.67$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.46 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 15c | 552.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked No | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed No | 54c | 171.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked No | 69c | 124$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 104$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…d131backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1579…cc72backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…d797backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 27c | 96.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 22c | 80.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 77.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 49c | 74.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 76c | 65.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 22c | 47.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $4.35 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.40 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.45 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.75 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.00 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.10 by May 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.