Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 153.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x114a6d45cd4b3003b1698d7b5a25b506ffea9f4e31b6e7eb62511cf16163896c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,070 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 4,034$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.36 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 2,298$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.41 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a9…4d64backed Over | 33c | 1,494$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.2 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Over | 49c | 1,253$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.05 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…691dbacked Over | 49c | 994.29$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Under | 51c | 602.53$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.24 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…cd88backed Over | 49c | 450$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 51c | 250.96$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.97 | 507 | 45.2%229 W · 278 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked Under | 55c | 216.29$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Under | 51c | 207.97$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 204.55$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Under | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…c3a0backed Under | 51c | 195.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 57c | 194.28$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 53c | 187.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.96 | 222 | 50%111 W · 111 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Under | 51c | 174.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Over | 46c | 116.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4614…9cd6backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 45c | 97.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Over | 43c | 84.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 52c | 77.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 52c | 73.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…9baebacked Under | 52c | 63.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…96e1backed Under | 55c | 54.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 45.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 49c | 44.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Under | 52c | 39.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 57c | 37.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 49c | 36.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e27…acccbacked Under | 60c | 29.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 57c | 26.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 51c | 23.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…5ffabacked Under | 55c | 22.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 56c | 19.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 58c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 153.5this page
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-12.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois Fighting Illini won
- VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 136.5Under won
- VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 145.5Under won
- VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 149.5Under won
- VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 150.5Under won
- VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 151.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.