TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Illinois Fighting Illiniof VCU Rams, Illinois Fighting Illini
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,984,892

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,984,892 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 254 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa59…75ecbacked VCU Rams19c400,000$75,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,578.1814346.9%67 W · 76 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed VCU Rams15c324,963$49,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,918.117742.9%76 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed VCU Rams19c308,084$58,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,391.242213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-65.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6aee…fad4backed VCU Rams9c186,839$16,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,707.733616.7%6 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed VCU Rams16c174,401$27,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,904.135541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked VCU Rams15c149,331$22,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,399.5989645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3348…c819backed VCU Rams17c124,400$21,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,1481225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed VCU Rams8c113,538$8,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,988.929839.8%39 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked VCU Rams16c100,000$16,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,0001540%6 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed VCU Rams19c88,531$16,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,820.892429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-34.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked VCU Rams6c55,647$3,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,334.313040%12 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed VCU Rams19c50,000$9,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,5001346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf811…69babacked VCU Rams19c48,749$9,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,262.31952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed VCU Rams18c40,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0006643.9%29 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0ee…eedcbacked VCU Rams19c39,315$7,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,469.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked VCU Rams6c36,247$2,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,133.781,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed VCU Rams9c35,343$3,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,120.8925145.8%115 W · 136 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed VCU Rams4c35,232$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.32,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed VCU Rams6c33,328$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,034.8328539.6%113 W · 172 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked VCU Rams17c30,377$5,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,230.422,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed VCU Rams1c29,989$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.36287.1%2 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-79.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed VCU Rams19c25,000$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7501833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked VCU Rams16c24,000$3,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8401643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+90.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52bf…97a2backed VCU Rams19c22,000$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1801040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked VCU Rams9c21,500$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9842853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3d2…f38bbacked VCU Rams20c21,433$4,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,286.61020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-57.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked VCU Rams17c20,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4003138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked VCU Rams15c20,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+57.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf88d…8d31backed VCU Rams17c19,901$3,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,383.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked VCU Rams5c18,913$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.2749345.4%224 W · 269 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8188…b171backed VCU Rams17c18,294$3,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,151.765933.9%20 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x097b…1d82backed VCU Rams16c18,219$2,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,914.981752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7593…e677backed VCU Rams16c17,000$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,680922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed VCU Rams1c15,022$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.62175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick24cpaid-87.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked VCU Rams12c13,694$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.1312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed VCU Rams18c12,025$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.2516341.7%68 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd78d…cbe9backed VCU Rams19c11,612$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,206.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed VCU Rams19c11,000$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05fd…50c9backed VCU Rams19c11,000$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0901553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6855…ba24backed VCU Rams0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed VCU Rams19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9003348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d29…414dbacked VCU Rams19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9001936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked VCU Rams16c10,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ca…8a4cbacked VCU Rams19c9,584$1,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,821250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed VCU Rams17c8,520$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.88444%37 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd681…bacabacked VCU Rams19c8,517$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.17520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed VCU Rams19c7,517$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.17650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+83.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5492…0b93backed VCU Rams19c7,161$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed VCU Rams11c7,046$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.243,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf295…508fbacked VCU Rams18c7,000$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2702548%12 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed VCU Rams16c6,500$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0403138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8be8…0425backed VCU Rams16c6,132$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.084240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed VCU Rams16c6,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96010441.3%43 W · 61 L-8.7wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked VCU Rams15c6,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc733…851abacked VCU Rams1c5,859$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a0…dffebacked VCU Rams16c5,774$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c6…47debacked VCU Rams16c5,453$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.482927.6%8 W · 21 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-45.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked VCU Rams0c5,364$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.253993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d6…d65fbacked VCU Rams17c5,130$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.755639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed VCU Rams17c5,001$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.0830649%150 W · 156 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed VCU Rams17c4,792$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.714040%16 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked VCU Rams16c4,490$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.324353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed VCU Rams19c4,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7604535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed VCU Rams16c3,996$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.381118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick21cpaid+31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked VCU Rams4c3,995$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.78822.4%2 W · 80 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-88.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b17…cb13backed VCU Rams17c3,980$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed VCU Rams16c3,615$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.4510041%41 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaff…ea99backed VCU Rams14c3,450$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeba7…85b9backed VCU Rams15c3,318$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.771729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed VCU Rams19c3,158$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda31…8e56backed VCU Rams14c3,100$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4248138.3%31 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed VCU Rams15c3,006$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.34542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked VCU Rams17c3,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5207938%30 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed VCU Rams19c3,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57013447%63 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbcc…edc9backed VCU Rams16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4803775.7%28 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4a9…4d64backed VCU Rams13c3,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007231.9%23 W · 49 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed VCU Rams16c3,000$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-79.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked VCU Rams14c2,993$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.6925246.4%117 W · 135 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed VCU Rams14c2,987$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.234845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed VCU Rams18c2,747$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.3735338.5%136 W · 217 L-18.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked VCU Rams15c2,707$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.984040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked VCU Rams17c2,662$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.087643.4%33 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44fc…9728backed VCU Rams19c2,500$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4751428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed VCU Rams16c2,500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5031…1ca3backed VCU Rams17c2,500$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed VCU Rams15c2,278$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.669711.3%11 W · 86 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17bf…5a53backed VCU Rams9c2,231$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.217812.8%10 W · 68 L-17.2wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-78.6%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked VCU Rams18c2,200$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38513343.6%58 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e31…4716backed VCU Rams15c2,003$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.38728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed VCU Rams16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3206336.5%23 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked VCU Rams19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561e…2093backed VCU Rams5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-16.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c65…dcf7backed VCU Rams18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d0…77e2backed VCU Rams6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed VCU Rams14c1,994$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.211526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-43.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7988…f3f3backed VCU Rams15c1,991$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.662913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked VCU Rams10c1,984$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1610429.8%31 W · 73 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed VCU Rams5c1,963$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.125437%20 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb000…bbe6backed VCU Rams17c1,873$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.423215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec4…b8e5backed VCU Rams13c1,629$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.82240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.