Stocks · resolved market
S&P 500 all time high by February 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x453c065522b1b588f773ab8dad36d3a399bfc15d4257f8e823451d9e47ec488f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,550$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 677.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462c…53bfbacked Yes | 6c | 624.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 576.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 6c | 573.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 4c | 561.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 4c | 450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 299.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Yes | 7c | 255.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 245.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…c194backed Yes | 10c | 225.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…a92abacked Yes | 10c | 209.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff85…4d83backed Yes | 6c | 170.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…4d9dbacked Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…691dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- S&P 500 all time high by February 20, 2026?this page
- S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.