TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$334,132
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$318,371

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $334,132 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 364 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes2c20,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f82…463bbacked Yes16c15,371$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,531.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes55c14,359$7,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,826.049530.5%29 W · 66 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a20…4b67backed Yes2c10,725$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No72c9,339$6,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,620.2726237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes26c7,615$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.651637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c7,366$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0251…c8fcbacked Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c5,800$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92358.6%3 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+122.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe653…4594backed Yes41c5,756$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.4350%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89aa…4793backed Yes1c4,792$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes15c4,760$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.942524%6 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c4,406$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.55520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2b…97b2backed No35c4,270$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,757.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed No72c3,992$2,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c3,469$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.35924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c3,134$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.03425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc5…e175backed No34c3,128$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.21757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes1c3,074$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.24845.8%22 W · 26 L+9.9wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+94%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x515e…747cbacked No77c2,588$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.183100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3535…5993backed Yes1c2,280$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x845b…43e2backed No74c2,096$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes22c2,036$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.8619934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes28c1,953$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.351450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd4…0796backed Yes7c1,921$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf155…76bdbacked No60c1,916$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bdd…9166backed No53c1,889$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c1,887$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.06147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+124.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebef…8731backed Yes4c1,854$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes39c1,746$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.6213147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39c3…0c7ebacked Yes45c1,742$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.27862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+61%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5034…c716backed Yes2c1,734$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab8…e705backed Yes4c1,605$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes6c1,487$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.924168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7011…c6dabacked No74c1,336$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45bd…ddc3backed Yes13c1,309$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x493c…953ebacked Yes6c1,243$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed No39c1,206$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes16c1,201$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.938524.7%21 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed No36c1,143$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.351163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+78%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked No59c1,116$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…b796backed No59c1,105$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99b1…4ea2backed Yes9c1,081$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes16c1,045$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.33per pick41cpaid-87.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes11c1,004$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.753630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ac…2f4fbacked Yes3c1,003$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c967.94$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.3717049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No60c967.46$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.535151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb00f…80c0backed Yes16c933.46$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c19…e131backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdf…1fcbbacked Yes11c892.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes3c888.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a3…29dbbacked Yes33c843.91$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.494346.5%20 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f3f…64a2backed Yes2c821.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6801…7030backed Yes3c804$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.63450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes25c792$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c788.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes1c742.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed1c…c962backed No72c728.1$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c713$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.111,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x011d…005dbacked No71c703.59$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfcc…12a6backed No78c682.44$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb737…4cb4backed Yes8c662.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa651…1fd0backed No69c650.29$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed No73c639.46$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No75c610.83$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x739a…a4d2backed No75c600$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes72c600$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4326864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes21c599.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No71c580$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.22688.5%23 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb50c…2f91backed Yes8c570.91$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb52…f638backed Yes5c564.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea7d…ac44backed No24c539.63$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes6c528.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.74714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b33…45d3backed Yes40c495.9$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6916…381bbacked No80c480.54$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No6c478.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.931163.6%7 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.46per pick18cpaid+320.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x60af…49dabacked Yes79c474.71$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No70c455.03$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.51966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e2e…db6abacked Yes44c451.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed No54c450.28$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.13771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d96…3ad5backed No77c440.36$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb165…c97ebacked No31c436.42$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+224.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd4…c0febacked No28c436.36$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+263.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No69c422.17$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.4227429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Yes27c406.47$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab5…f570backed Yes14c396.63$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85a9…bb66backed Yes76c394.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9edd…6fe3backed No72c369.78$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No64c357.25$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes53c356.8$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6879…178fbacked Yes28c356.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48f9…e61dbacked No52c356.12$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c345.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.78704.3%3 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No50c337.83$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.44862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x734c…1d86backed No60c336.16$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.663100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+164.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ad8…6be0backed Yes40c333.44$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.755550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.