TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2c19…e131

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Boxing, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$511.48
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+305%+$2,135.25
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+300%+$750
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the Iranian regime fall before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-84.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$3,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,100
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,900
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Los Angeles Lakers?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Toronto Raptors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,277Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+86.6%+$1,971.25
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Houston Rockets?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$580
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+328.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+625.7%+$1,251.33
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,507Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+31.6%+$792.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+140.5%+$3,511.9
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$1,090.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,844Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+36%+$663.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $55M?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,185Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$315
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,519.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobollibacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.