Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iranian regime fall before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2dc7089006b74bb8b62b4c787be46ee530b5437b6fd05990aed3ec6416a805c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 7,969$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 2c | 7,600$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…f557backed Yes | 2c | 7,408$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 3c | 6,269$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes | 3c | 6,079$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd797…eb1cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,223$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 2,958$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed Yes | 4c | 2,299$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2665…a8fcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,234$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed Yes | 3c | 2,130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,561$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,530$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,515$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,198$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…6668backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…3d7fbacked Yes | 4c | 989.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd450…27cfbacked Yes | 4c | 981.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf283…cb3dbacked Yes | 2c | 933.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…e131backed Yes | 28c | 726.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 688.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…5922backed Yes | 3c | 625.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…398fbacked Yes | 2c | 623.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…8723backed Yes | 3c | 588.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf7…779bbacked Yes | 8c | 523.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 70c | 520.45$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abb…0045backed Yes | 4c | 515.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…ae0fbacked Yes | 6c | 439.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…86e1backed Yes | 4c | 311.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae80…3900backed Yes | 11c | 116.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5087…c157backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.