Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22014d44b787385b7baddb2b9d56cdcf5904fd7783b83c28403962dd71e51a51

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,388,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,386,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,388,355 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 529 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	7c	127,576$8,752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,752.2	287	34.5%99 W · 188 L	+21.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdc5…afc9backed Yes	0c	113,844$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.69	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	2cpaid	+251%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf396…ed0dbacked No	79c	99,099$78,769 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,329.52	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	61cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes	19c	71,006$13,262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,262.29	89	37.1%33 W · 56 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5925…b194backed Yes	5c	61,596$3,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,193.13	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes	21c	56,756$11,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,993.8	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes	12c	50,926$5,892 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,892.17	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes	16c	34,433$5,401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,401.3	165	26.1%43 W · 122 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes	10c	34,166$3,369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,368.92	113	23.9%27 W · 86 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	10c	30,155$3,063 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,063.34	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes	10c	28,306$2,914 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,913.72	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes	23c	26,787$6,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,159.33	207	49.3%102 W · 105 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,990$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.99	76	18.4%14 W · 62 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes	6c	25,256$1,484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,483.84	50	14%7 W · 43 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	7c	22,908$1,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,549.88	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes	23c	22,184$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed No	78c	22,095$17,234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,860.9	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes	11c	21,782$2,294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,294.45	223	33.6%75 W · 148 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes	15c	21,381$3,171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,171.29	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+3.6wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+53.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes	28c	19,050$5,411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,410.65	204	38.7%79 W · 125 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes	22c	16,988$3,788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,788	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	6c	16,420$912 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$911.52	155	23.2%36 W · 119 L	+12.1wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes	12c	15,958$1,895 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,895.22	96	13.5%13 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes	20c	15,000$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,999.98	43	60.5%26 W · 17 L	+5.0wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe555…a91dbacked Yes	8c	14,962$1,173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,172.65	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b8…05cfbacked Yes	6c	14,277$924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd5…8563backed Yes	22c	13,877$3,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,060	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+183%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x045f…ffb6backed Yes	23c	13,043$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafe6…8192backed Yes	9c	12,000$1,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,025	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+6.8wins	+0.27per pick	17cpaid	+134.5%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes	14c	11,121$1,539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,539.14	53	43.4%23 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes	9c	11,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960.04	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-5.0wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Yes	9c	10,613$921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$921.36	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.33per pick	7cpaid	+409.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes	7c	10,096$707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$706.59	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3fd…9e61backed Yes	3c	10,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.64	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+1,233.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	22c	9,491$2,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,070	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes	7c	8,977$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$601.84	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes	6c	8,768$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.43	152	30.3%46 W · 106 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes	3c	8,506$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.15	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f9…0540backed Yes	19c	7,156$1,336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,336	78	37.2%29 W · 49 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes	4c	7,116$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.4	79	43%34 W · 45 L	+11.7wins	+0.15per pick	28cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes	12c	6,436$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741.28	85	15.3%13 W · 72 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes	2c	6,408$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.8	165	7.3%12 W · 153 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No	68c	6,282$4,245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,036.53	167	39.5%66 W · 101 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No	77c	6,000$4,620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,380	276	43.5%120 W · 156 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61b…9d74backed Yes	18c	5,739$1,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,016.18	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…ead3backed Yes	3c	5,672$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.67	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	20c	5,380$1,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,091.33	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ac…8669backed Yes	16c	5,300$845 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$845	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+2.3wins	+0.16per pick	26cpaid	+181.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	6c	5,269$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.41	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes	9c	5,093$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.47	70	20%14 W · 56 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes	27c	5,069$1,345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,345.04	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a13…12dbbacked Yes	26c	4,999$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,299.81	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29da…539fbacked Yes	7c	4,969$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Yes	6c	4,937$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes	6c	4,871$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.34	89	33.7%30 W · 59 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Yes	8c	4,870$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.4	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	16c	4,849$762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.53	358	8.7%31 W · 327 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+99.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x934c…cd38backed No	61c	4,820$2,940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,879.67	63	58.7%37 W · 26 L	+11.0wins	+0.17per pick	41cpaid	+37.3%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes	6c	4,695$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.94	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	-5.5wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes	6c	4,676$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	6c	4,620$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.89	371	7%26 W · 345 L	+10.6wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	12c	4,590$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.66	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x943c…1d17backed Yes	55c	4,502$2,467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,467	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e64…fc32backed Yes	51c	4,288$2,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c1b…3eb9backed Yes	40c	4,220$1,692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,692.49	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Yes	21c	4,102$880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$880.37	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+3.6wins	+0.19per pick	34cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No	78c	4,000$3,122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$877.49	382	47.6%182 W · 200 L	+37.1wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	3,935$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.88	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d70…706fbacked Yes	22c	3,749$836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$836.05	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	56cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa429…368abacked No	77c	3,733$2,884 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$849.26	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-11.4wins	-0.20per pick	67cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x8437…1c11backed Yes	40c	3,714$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes	4c	3,641$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.01	130	22.3%29 W · 101 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f51…4530backed Yes	20c	3,200$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.99	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes	20c	3,172$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.63	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes	6c	3,140$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.4	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b4…ac80backed No	80c	3,125$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$625	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+2.9wins	+0.19per pick	54cpaid	+48.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b76…9823backed Yes	22c	3,060$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.2	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	40cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Yes	24c	3,016$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$723.87	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.23per pick	45cpaid	-63%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd054…7e38backed No	80c	3,000$2,390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No	71c	2,995$2,126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$869.35	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5c…a68abacked No	80c	2,989$2,391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$597.75	10	100%10 W · 0 L	+3.1wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x11fd…f6b4backed No	72c	2,973$2,145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$828.09	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,909$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.88	419	5.3%22 W · 397 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee9d…7d47backed Yes	31c	2,850$871 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$871	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes	33c	2,811$934 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$934.14	72	38.9%28 W · 44 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-18%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	8c	2,753$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	4c	2,750$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.85	473	34%161 W · 312 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3069…83cdbacked Yes	10c	2,742$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.11	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes	39c	2,729$1,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,070.59	109	45.9%50 W · 59 L	+4.5wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	20c	2,644$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.89	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b9d…8201backed No	59c	2,624$1,544 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,079.41	114	54.4%62 W · 52 L	+15.3wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	6c	2,613$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.31	103	9.7%10 W · 93 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes	12c	2,593$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes	21c	2,528$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.2	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+5.7wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+154.9%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x97af…9bc6backed No	74c	2,500$1,850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$650	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes	27c	2,431$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.39	75	42.7%32 W · 43 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	6c	2,418$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.11	109	13.8%15 W · 94 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked No	78c	2,388$1,870 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.12	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes	31c	2,340$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724.99	226	27.9%63 W · 163 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event