Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0549eb8269570dea333fe47ffff241827d93a22caed18f64f9a1eb4c3239c7f8

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,261,246
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,295,936

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,261,246 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 5,982 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	78c	49,839$38,740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,099.19	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No	23c	48,334$11,315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,314.7	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No	0c	22,050$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.65	274	2.9%8 W · 266 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes	71c	21,524$15,383 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,140.47	148	21.6%32 W · 116 L	-24.5wins	-0.17per pick	38cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfba6…1fcabacked Yes	69c	21,500$14,840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,660.1	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-3.0wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes	72c	17,636$12,629 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,007.05	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+3.6wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+53.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes	71c	17,013$12,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,974.67	287	50.2%144 W · 143 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No	24c	11,093$2,660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,660.14	84	33.3%28 W · 56 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbce…3da1backed No	5c	10,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes	64c	10,000$6,415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,584.98	353	55.5%196 W · 157 L	+36.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb1f…907dbacked No	43c	9,379$4,021 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,020.97	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-8.4wins	-0.31per pick	57cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x0652…9134backed No	35c	9,199$3,208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,208.09	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-9.9wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes	61c	7,323$4,459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,864.04	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	+6.6wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0e9…1f00backed No	27c	7,238$1,969 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,968.81	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.28per pick	37cpaid	-83.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcca9…4c9fbacked No	40c	7,000$2,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,799.73	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-34%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x131a…73f9backed Yes	56c	6,851$3,861 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,989.4	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed Yes	65c	5,818$3,806 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,012.01	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No	1c	5,556$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.86	511	38.7%198 W · 313 L	+18.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e4f…4594backed No	21c	5,401$1,127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,127.22	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No	38c	5,261$1,985 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,985	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cd…079bbacked No	44c	4,650$2,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,046	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.31per pick	44cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e7a…29f6backed No	22c	4,641$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No	20c	4,586$937 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$937.46	359	21.4%77 W · 282 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Yes	53c	4,444$2,355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,088.66	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No	24c	4,420$1,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,058.17	142	28.2%40 W · 102 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+34%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes	74c	4,331$3,224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,106.74	322	43.5%140 W · 182 L	+13.2wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No	19c	4,291$805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$804.81	226	27.9%63 W · 163 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed No	44c	4,063$1,775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,775.4	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-11.1wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	+123.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xee25…7cd3backed No	19c	4,012$768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.41	90	31.1%28 W · 62 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	+69.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No	30c	4,000$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.99	264	29.2%77 W · 187 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes	77c	3,997$3,068 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$929.25	120	54.2%65 W · 55 L	+10.7wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed No	19c	3,918$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741.6	206	17%35 W · 171 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes	60c	3,356$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,356.2	121	52.9%64 W · 57 L	+12.9wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a4e…1ba4backed No	32c	3,170$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	29c	3,092$887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$887.33	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked No	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.94	77	26%20 W · 57 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17aa…42febacked No	32c	2,546$807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.5	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33dc…bb81backed Yes	64c	2,500$1,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	61cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No	29c	2,455$722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722.05	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x174b…5a55backed No	41c	2,432$997 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$997	43	23.3%10 W · 33 L	-7.8wins	-0.18per pick	41cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes	55c	2,417$1,321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,096.05	341	43.4%148 W · 193 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes	75c	2,400$1,810 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$590.39	207	49.3%102 W · 105 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No	10c	2,323$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.21	366	34.4%126 W · 240 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No	42c	2,293$973 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$973.29	281	26.3%74 W · 207 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0099…386ebacked No	11c	2,150$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239	70	32.9%23 W · 47 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No	47c	2,130$1,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001.1	47	25.5%12 W · 35 L	-5.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x56ec…5f73backed No	23c	1,952$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.01	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	72c	1,885$1,349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$536.33	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…ddfcbacked No	32c	1,863$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+97.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc4…4347backed No	1c	1,847$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	83	37.3%31 W · 52 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed No	20c	1,823$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.26	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd0…fb3dbacked No	21c	1,800$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes	64c	1,740$1,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$619.24	296	53.7%159 W · 137 L	+20.2wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+104.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes	80c	1,723$1,378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$344.51	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes	78c	1,620$1,269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.45	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+4.8wins	+0.13per pick	38cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1008…5700backed No	32c	1,600$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.7wins	-0.30per pick	52cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes	74c	1,557$1,154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$403.15	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No	24c	1,472$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.25	117	28.2%33 W · 84 L	-7.9wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No	32c	1,460$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.2	162	31.5%51 W · 111 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	72c	1,377$989 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$387.42	678	41.6%282 W · 396 L	-20.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes	68c	1,306$883 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$422.8	75	42.7%32 W · 43 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5979…7fbdbacked Yes	63c	1,295$812 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$483.08	17	76.5%13 W · 4 L	+3.7wins	+0.22per pick	54cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	25c	1,261$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.95	589	27.2%160 W · 429 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cbe…100abacked No	32c	1,250$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ed1…033abacked Yes	57c	1,200$682 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.1wins	+0.19per pick	54cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	37c	1,199$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.17	423	11.6%49 W · 374 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	20c	1,164$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238	342	34.8%119 W · 223 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	79c	1,131$897 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.74	458	43.7%200 W · 258 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No	35c	1,117$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.48	167	39.5%66 W · 101 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8f…3179backed No	27c	1,111$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5bd…ceaabacked No	1c	1,111$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	215	37.7%81 W · 134 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x372c…67c6backed Yes	68c	1,111$759 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.66	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…9411backed Yes	56c	1,100$616 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$484.47	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	21c	1,072$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.53	288	27.8%80 W · 208 L	-10.4wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes	80c	1,025$817 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.93	183	38.3%70 W · 113 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes	60c	1,000$596 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$403.95	202	39.1%79 W · 123 L	+20.4wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed No	32c	1,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ea…6cebbacked Yes	60c	1,000$599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.3	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	20c	1,000$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf192…6ee2backed Yes	61c	999.98$610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$389.99	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	+5.7wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+80.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe2ee…e511backed Yes	79c	994$789 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.88	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.23per pick	48cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c12…62ccbacked No	39c	960.02$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No	18c	934.57$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.22	122	23%28 W · 94 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…1c95backed No	45c	898.7$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f0…c480backed No	23c	856.38$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.4	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b91…a535backed No	22c	808$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.76	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x392a…262dbacked No	29c	801.29$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.35	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93f2…a879backed Yes	61c	800$488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed Yes	75c	800$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8183…5216backed Yes	76c	786$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.64	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ba…275ebacked No	39c	784.77$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.56	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	61cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf58…d02dbacked Yes	72c	773$558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.61	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3141…8179backed Yes	71c	760.66$537 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.5	10	40%4 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x148b…a771backed Yes	79c	746$592 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.86	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+2.0wins	+0.23per pick	33cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20ba…d34abacked Yes	65c	706$459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.72	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.6wins	+0.38per pick	48cpaid	+95.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x53bf…7497backed Yes	57c	695.77$397 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$299.18	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf7c…70ddbacked No	36c	695$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.72	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+325.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae1f…86c4backed No	46c	688$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.1	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	-10%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No	24c	686$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.39	181	35.9%65 W · 116 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe210…1918backed No	21c	662$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.71	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event