Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15b59602a6f0c3fa165771a7fa1bd41af40f8ea49a1c0e2fc91c1c31e69cc664

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $64,737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,737 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe234…304abacked Yes	4c	6,427$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.91	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-55%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb328…71a3backed Yes	0c	6,277$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes	5c	5,501$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.98	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	5c	4,500$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.5	175	30.9%54 W · 121 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	5c	3,819$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.2	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	7c	3,500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	156	29.5%46 W · 110 L	+8.9wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes	3c	2,364$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	70	30%21 W · 49 L	+10.8wins	+0.15per pick	15cpaid	+250.2%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	5c	2,222$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.8	442	24.4%108 W · 334 L	+22.2wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,661$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.98	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed Yes	2c	1,050$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes	4c	726.19$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes	7c	686.25$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.18	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+3.6wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+53.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	5c	499.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes	3c	382.28$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	110	38.2%42 W · 68 L	+9.0wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3069…83cdbacked Yes	9c	380.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	419	5.3%22 W · 397 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	299.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	462	5%23 W · 439 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event