TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$865,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$894,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $865,021 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4478…02a4backed Yes10c36,353$3,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,675.528734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes15c29,415$4,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,513.6711527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…47cebacked Yes10c22,476$2,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,276.282425%6 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd13e…356cbacked Yes5c15,717$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.08147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes6c13,087$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.2116638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes5c12,126$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.7726429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No58c11,546$6,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,822.1836227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdd…c3c0backed Yes22c11,222$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.84475%3 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.61per pick14cpaid+926.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe430…9660backed Yes6c11,167$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes23c11,066$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.9711038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes6c10,673$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.0216553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes9c10,157$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.0610226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes13c10,112$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3553240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3732…43acbacked Yes9c9,832$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+76%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes12c8,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.9921531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe000…cbb1backed Yes10c6,557$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.898441.7%35 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d8c…cf02backed Yes25c6,478$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.231118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+41.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x432b…ae9abacked Yes20c6,446$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.6850%4 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+204.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb01…ead3backed Yes14c6,338$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9003813.2%5 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes9c6,105$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.712123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+247.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2599…9a4abacked Yes4c6,019$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes5c5,900$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.449023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes5c5,680$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-67.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412c…2d87backed Yes12c5,165$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6037433.8%25 W · 49 L+11.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+259.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes43c4,956$2,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.5815230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes9c4,641$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.5642329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa282…575cbacked Yes6c4,624$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.661711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+390.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes6c4,521$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.173717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes12c4,499$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.6218738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Yes9c4,303$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f0…3068backed Yes25c4,241$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.91010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+624.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes1c3,965$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2324234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd806…787fbacked Yes3c3,924$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.641625%4 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-63.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd87d…52f9backed Yes17c3,819$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6419530.5%29 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe661…b679backed Yes8c3,768$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.961118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed Yes19c3,569$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.194027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes44c3,469$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.831241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4b3…c131backed Yes29c3,457$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.463517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+309.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd798…669fbacked Yes7c3,439$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+231.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes7c3,411$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.8212328.5%35 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked Yes4c3,383$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13180%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0785…ecb4backed Yes20c3,309$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.915550.9%28 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes6c3,255$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.111657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No55c3,000$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35327643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No25c2,852$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.8430649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes7c2,807$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.683040%12 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No31c2,747$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.3313864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Yes13c2,609$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.381936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes11c2,600$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.4735631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b8…6ddebacked Yes12c2,559$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.23728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick12cpaid+264.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa05…2a42backed Yes20c2,442$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+46%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes5c2,350$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7615523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes11c2,289$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.0116832.1%54 W · 114 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51b2…10cebacked Yes16c2,272$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3608719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+51.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes14c2,188$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7615625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xad64…de75backed Yes7c2,116$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.614129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes19c2,053$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.8621525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,042$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.264769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf495…3429backed Yes13c2,021$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+518.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes8c2,006$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.81631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes6c2,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.78719.5%17 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca3…a161backed Yes18c1,900$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.99911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34f9…0540backed No72c1,851$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.87837.2%29 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No44c1,818$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.084860.4%29 W · 19 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+42.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x13b3…7552backed Yes20c1,818$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.391735.3%6 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick12cpaid+484.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed Yes9c1,800$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1642343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes14c1,800$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.75913.6%8 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-59.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes6c1,795$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.83630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes6c1,700$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.62742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes10c1,627$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6544224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes12c1,601$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.026813.2%9 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes9c1,412$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.06714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+224.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed Yes11c1,400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15211250%56 W · 56 L+25.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+87.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x63c0…28e6backed Yes7c1,370$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+19%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes10c1,350$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1356145.9%28 W · 33 L+13.5wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+73.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,345$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.771,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes8c1,326$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.092142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No79c1,324$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.733337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes14c1,316$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.969222.8%21 W · 71 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56bf…5c19backed Yes16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004537.8%17 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2283…b1d8backed Yes10c1,206$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.891127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+101%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c1,136$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8977636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes12c1,100$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.448630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d7…11b2backed No78c1,067$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.756535.4%23 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes4c1,040$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.372036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes12c1,029$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.843943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes5c1,029$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.71703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes8c1,014$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.648923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes4c1,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3950%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Yes12c1,000$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.54330.2%13 W · 30 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+107.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x682e…70bdbacked No50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003745.9%17 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+26.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9eed…acbebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-53.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29ce…e196backed No51c1,000$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.061963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+30.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa095…6040backed Yes11c1,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1124949%24 W · 25 L+14.7wins+0.30per pick19cpaid+257.5%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Yes5c1,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.85215.4%8 W · 44 L-9.6wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-57.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15022333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed Yes10c999.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974015%6 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes10c971.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9510313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33eb…b07ebacked Yes7c928.91$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…540cbacked Yes22c912.6$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.077346.6%34 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.