Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d64853f670b85151d2441b2bdea142f2031b573947ab2887e82585546fdc7f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $865,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $894,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $865,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 10c | 36,353$3,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,675.5 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 15c | 29,415$4,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,513.67 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 10c | 22,476$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.28 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…356cbacked Yes | 5c | 15,717$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.08 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 6c | 13,087$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.21 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 5c | 12,126$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.77 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 58c | 11,546$6,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,822.18 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…c3c0backed Yes | 22c | 11,222$2,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 14cpaid | +926.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe430…9660backed Yes | 6c | 11,167$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 23c | 11,066$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506.97 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 6c | 10,673$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.02 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 9c | 10,157$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.06 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes | 13c | 10,112$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3732…43acbacked Yes | 9c | 9,832$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 12c | 8,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.99 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 10c | 6,557$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.89 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…cf02backed Yes | 25c | 6,478$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x432b…ae9abacked Yes | 20c | 6,446$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 14c | 6,338$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes | 9c | 6,105$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.71 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +247.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9a4abacked Yes | 4c | 6,019$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 5c | 5,900$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.4 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 5c | 5,680$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 12c | 5,165$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 43c | 4,956$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150.58 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 9c | 4,641$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.56 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…575cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,624$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.66 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +390.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 4,521$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.17 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 12c | 4,499$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.62 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 9c | 4,303$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Yes | 25c | 4,241$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +624.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 3,965$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd806…787fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,924$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed Yes | 17c | 3,819$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…b679backed Yes | 8c | 3,768$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 19c | 3,569$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.19 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 44c | 3,469$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.8 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed Yes | 29c | 3,457$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.46 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +309.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…669fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,439$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +231.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,411$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.82 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 4c | 3,383$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed Yes | 20c | 3,309$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.91 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 6c | 3,255$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.11 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 55c | 3,000$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 25c | 2,852$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.84 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,807$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.68 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 31c | 2,747$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.33 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Yes | 13c | 2,609$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 11c | 2,600$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.47 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b8…6ddebacked Yes | 12c | 2,559$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +264.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…2a42backed Yes | 20c | 2,442$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 5c | 2,350$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.76 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,289$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.01 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked Yes | 16c | 2,272$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 2,188$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.76 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…de75backed Yes | 7c | 2,116$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 19c | 2,053$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.86 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,042$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf495…3429backed Yes | 13c | 2,021$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +518.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 8c | 2,006$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca3…a161backed Yes | 18c | 1,900$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed No | 72c | 1,851$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.8 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 44c | 1,818$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.08 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x13b3…7552backed Yes | 20c | 1,818$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +484.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 9c | 1,800$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes | 14c | 1,800$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.7 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,795$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 1,627$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.65 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,601$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.02 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 9c | 1,412$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +224.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 11c | 1,400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +25.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x63c0…28e6backed Yes | 7c | 1,370$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +19%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,350$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +13.5wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,345$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 8c | 1,326$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 79c | 1,324$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.7 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,316$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.96 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…5c19backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…b1d8backed Yes | 10c | 1,206$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +101%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 1,136$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 12c | 1,100$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed No | 78c | 1,067$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.75 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 4c | 1,040$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 12c | 1,029$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 5c | 1,029$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 1,014$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eed…acbebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ce…e196backed No | 51c | 1,000$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.06 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +14.7wins | +0.30per pick | 19cpaid | +257.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -9.6wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed Yes | 10c | 999.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 10c | 971.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Yes | 7c | 928.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 22c | 912.6$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.07 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.