Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe31a6c763685129123cb6a0f729bfce04b768c5a22cb09c5610406df1a302465

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,877,652
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,951,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,877,652 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,434 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5925…b194backed Yes	16c	192,917$30,483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30,482.99	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes	9c	60,783$5,618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,618.13	89	37.1%33 W · 56 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x766e…21cdbacked Yes	12c	54,200$6,302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,302.14	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7494…680dbacked Yes	11c	52,852$5,585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,584.56	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-4.3wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes	20c	47,598$9,343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,342.56	79	43%34 W · 45 L	+11.7wins	+0.15per pick	28cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b55…229cbacked Yes	17c	40,000$6,879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,878.99	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	18cpaid	+68.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd4…e792backed No	77c	39,627$30,399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,228.76	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes	17c	33,665$5,792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,791.67	223	33.6%75 W · 148 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes	17c	33,594$5,613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,613.13	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5138…4fe5backed Yes	5c	30,723$1,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,409.93	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	8c	30,000$2,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,300	287	34.5%99 W · 188 L	+21.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes	14c	28,069$3,909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,908.99	73	37%27 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes	18c	27,816$5,078 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,077.93	161	25.5%41 W · 120 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes	0c	26,817$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.82	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes	19c	25,136$4,792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,792.39	204	38.7%79 W · 125 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	19c	23,615$4,504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,504.12	175	30.9%54 W · 121 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x152f…a549backed Yes	24c	21,246$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.12per pick	18cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes	21c	19,089$4,048 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,048.33	215	31.2%67 W · 148 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0475…ed7abacked Yes	21c	18,670$3,921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,920.65	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes	2c	18,642$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.82	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	-5.5wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes	9c	18,475$1,663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,662.77	138	23.2%32 W · 106 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes	6c	16,574$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.25	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce85…ccd7backed No	79c	16,463$13,014 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,449.34	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	37c	15,395$5,649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,649.24	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ed…e774backed No	79c	14,640$11,638 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,001.56	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	+33%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	11c	13,900$1,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,549.73	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5835…9404backed Yes	60c	13,633$8,227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,227.11	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-5.1wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x415f…3033backed No	50c	13,028$6,497 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,531.08	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+61.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes	15c	12,645$1,958 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,958.3	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes	11c	12,520$1,323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,322.66	208	23.1%48 W · 160 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No	79c	11,805$9,293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,511.91	30	40%12 W · 18 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7feb…6612backed Yes	2c	11,092$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes	21c	11,057$2,295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,294.96	276	43.5%120 W · 156 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	9c	10,664$947 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$947.08	312	41.7%130 W · 182 L	+15.4wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+66.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Yes	27c	10,000$2,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	+5.8wins	+0.21per pick	47cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8633…a08dbacked Yes	64c	9,918$6,322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,321.56	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x758c…074abacked Yes	6c	9,861$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.19	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+82.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7a…29f6backed No	51c	9,816$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,816.23	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	9c	9,605$842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$841.9	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes	31c	9,530$2,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,993.66	126	29.4%37 W · 89 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No	43c	9,133$3,907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,225.61	382	47.6%182 W · 200 L	+37.1wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	14c	9,064$1,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,254.03	225	29.8%67 W · 158 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked No	59c	8,988$5,259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,729.48	179	34.6%62 W · 117 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee7…17b0backed No	36c	8,819$3,215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,604.23	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No	59c	8,331$4,935 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,396.39	353	47%166 W · 187 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a81…d324backed Yes	32c	8,211$2,592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,591.99	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	4c	8,172$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.97	476	9.9%47 W · 429 L	+15.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes	23c	8,166$1,883 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,882.99	382	37.7%144 W · 238 L	+16.4wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	65c	8,119$5,239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,238.61	205	49.8%102 W · 103 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed Yes	12c	8,051$927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$926.61	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes	25c	7,908$1,984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,983.94	203	36.9%75 W · 128 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6056…c27cbacked Yes	18c	7,600$1,392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,391.84	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	14c	7,442$1,061 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,060.98	473	34%161 W · 312 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd902…cdb9backed No	75c	7,400$5,533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,866.88	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes	28c	7,178$2,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,019.41	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed Yes	11c	7,165$789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$789.36	65	50.8%33 W · 32 L	+6.2wins	+0.10per pick	41cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes	33c	7,147$2,379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,378.75	292	54.8%160 W · 132 L	+18.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f94…7d96backed No	79c	7,030$5,530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,499.73	46	69.6%32 W · 14 L	+4.6wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes	17c	6,938$1,207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,207.34	72	38.9%28 W · 44 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-18%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes	13c	6,645$854 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$854.21	70	20%14 W · 56 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	25c	6,461$1,642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,641.98	359	21.4%77 W · 282 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes	59c	6,243$3,693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,693.09	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+4.8wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33e1…b30fbacked Yes	16c	6,237$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x433e…86fcbacked Yes	7c	5,992$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.38	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe486…2d23backed Yes	10c	5,911$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e9…8b84backed Yes	11c	5,892$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes	10c	5,815$565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565.17	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2222…f221backed Yes	15c	5,172$771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$771.42	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No	48c	5,162$2,477 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,684.53	105	28.6%30 W · 75 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…9402backed Yes	10c	5,158$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.56	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	8c	5,150$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414	274	2.9%8 W · 266 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes	15c	5,081$749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$748.91	322	43.5%140 W · 182 L	+13.2wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes	12c	5,055$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.64	130	22.3%29 W · 101 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes	10c	5,051$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.66	486	30.5%148 W · 338 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes	54c	5,000$2,679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,678.58	409	39.6%162 W · 247 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes	19c	5,000$948 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$948.09	139	42.4%59 W · 80 L	+9.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xafc0…5087backed No	36c	5,000$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,199.99	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+6.2wins	+0.56per pick	17cpaid	+549%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	12c	4,823$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.17	281	26.3%74 W · 207 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked No	64c	4,717$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,717.39	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+5.7wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	+75.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb331…1786backed Yes	12c	4,710$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.9	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-24%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bcf…324ebacked No	78c	4,628$3,626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,002.01	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aca…94d0backed Yes	11c	4,602$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	18cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e5b…7796backed Yes	15c	4,490$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.98	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	3c	4,480$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.61	358	8.7%31 W · 327 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+99.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62f8…2928backed Yes	9c	4,450$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.5	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No	32c	4,439$1,420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,018.35	367	50.4%185 W · 182 L	+39.6wins	+0.11per pick	40cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7be6…1bdbbacked No	76c	4,275$3,238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,036.7	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	67cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked No	67c	4,257$2,841 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,416.04	50	36%18 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	12c	4,196$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.66	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes	1c	4,184$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed Yes	22c	4,138$924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$923.79	142	49.3%70 W · 72 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b07…96febacked Yes	11c	4,105$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.58	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	+316.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed No	75c	4,075$3,075 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000.83	39	69.2%27 W · 12 L	+4.7wins	+0.12per pick	57cpaid	+16%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes	20c	4,011$819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$818.93	228	46.1%105 W · 123 L	+22.6wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x43bb…26dbbacked Yes	8c	3,982$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.97	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-20%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes	31c	3,895$1,222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,222.06	152	34.2%52 W · 100 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Yes	65c	3,882$2,531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,531.41	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c9…1c13backed Yes	16c	3,807$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes	25c	3,795$957 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$956.73	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes	33c	3,779$1,237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,237.43	68	13.2%9 W · 59 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event