TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,008,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,156,602

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,008,009 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 493 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c89,102$69,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,249.1764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes12c34,917$4,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,133.5214821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes4c33,644$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.7619531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes17c28,205$4,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,892.3737740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes67c22,120$14,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,930.042740.7%11 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+53.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb1f…907dbacked No24c18,107$4,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,749.772725.9%7 W · 20 L-8.4wins-0.31per pick57cpaid-53.4%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes54c16,534$8,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,924.8211038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes78c16,112$12,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,567.116553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes79c14,402$11,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,380.1611334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes11c11,558$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.1722627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes30c11,541$3,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,446.9648923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dba…c1a7backed Yes25c10,897$2,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,77860%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes3c10,500$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.264769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked No60c10,089$6,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,011.718719.5%17 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No61c9,869$5,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,896.8535631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes25c9,702$2,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,417.911323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes5c7,991$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.383588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes4c7,446$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.6435921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No47c6,920$3,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,641.8116831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes16c6,898$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.9132243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb332…2a4ebacked No68c6,772$4,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,167.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No75c6,749$5,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.2528750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…9402backed Yes2c6,657$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.464216.7%7 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes78c6,487$5,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,059.9227643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf01…bbf7backed No71c6,475$4,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.86560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No67c6,188$4,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.886251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked Yes17c5,365$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.6813650%68 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No40c5,321$2,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,176.8916739.5%66 W · 101 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes36c5,146$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,876.2917839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes21c5,119$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.925442.6%23 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0005635.7%20 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.995343.4%23 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes14c4,856$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.4821521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes77c4,348$3,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,357.2120438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes39c4,288$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.1817449.4%86 W · 88 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5254…891bbacked No49c4,132$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.254367.4%29 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes9c4,123$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.621525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95e7…9561backed No79c4,067$3,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8502729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked No57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.54341.9%18 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed No61c4,000$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5801741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c3,617$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.192217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes4c3,600$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.52742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes59c3,596$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.2113639%53 W · 83 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71a4…cd31backed Yes45c3,300$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.991457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5545…8371backed No66c3,230$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.231822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes18c3,100$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9916739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010132.7%33 W · 68 L+10.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes30c2,649$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.9717737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes41c2,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0259846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc073…a9b0backed Yes23c2,499$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.77633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes7c2,447$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.793717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No22c2,431$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.0889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f71…4e83backed No23c2,391$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.071822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No39c2,369$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.9836634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d4…3b1dbacked Yes11c2,352$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes18c2,339$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.2724149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No77c2,300$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52916541.2%68 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf192…6ee2backed Yes40c2,253$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.54062.5%25 W · 15 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+80.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No62c2,200$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8368749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No24c2,095$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.8221531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed Yes76c2,053$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.84738.3%18 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…e42abacked No58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8402755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58c…d588backed Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-74.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes23c1,988$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.968515.3%13 W · 72 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes18c1,800$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32648630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No18c1,714$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.5322333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98f1…fe43backed No73c1,632$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.871241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8633…a08dbacked Yes50c1,600$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.844136.6%15 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No30c1,544$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.52850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5c4…0926backed No80c1,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3002948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6f…8df2backed Yes1c1,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick3cpaid+92.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed No67c1,474$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.584959.2%29 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x231a…d9ccbacked No77c1,444$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.81955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes6c1,420$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2437%3 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No61c1,416$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.949257.6%53 W · 39 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc68a…af49backed Yes64c1,400$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9021323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No59c1,390$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.7936035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No63c1,300$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48136227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,281$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.861,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac42…60d1backed Yes58c1,277$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.743650%18 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x298f…1601backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No76c1,250$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.7234143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d5…fba3backed No73c1,248$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.11361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c1,235$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.084195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0099…386ebacked Yes15c1,200$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1807032.9%23 W · 47 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes3c1,200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3913022.3%29 W · 101 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c1,174$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.864625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4f…4594backed No52c1,159$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.566331.7%20 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes65c1,144$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.8819739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes21c1,111$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.3111843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No14c1,107$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.9442311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes19c1,080$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.629027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb069…0e1cbacked No65c1,080$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.533348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes11c1,075$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3367841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe63e…3204backed Yes14c1,058$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.191353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+87.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes28c1,056$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.376936.2%25 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61b9…20a3backed Yes46c1,051$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.025026%13 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked No23c1,039$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.6613250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1308…45c6backed No14c1,038$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.815664.3%36 W · 20 L+13.2wins+0.24per pick41cpaid+85.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.