Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eb9a4ee0945f88ab336c083f03de6d9da5aef11e7f88e33870a43f19b2288f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 3c | 12,000$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.68 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 4c | 10,675$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.14 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 8c | 9,849$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.32 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74eb…b6f8backed Yes | 4c | 6,780$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 5c | 5,126$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.98 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…356cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,609$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,346$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 5c | 4,117$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…cf02backed Yes | 5c | 4,022$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,556$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff8…973dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,180$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.9 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…ed4fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,773$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,230$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 3c | 2,200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 2,200$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.21 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 5c | 2,090$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,814$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,719$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…3c56backed Yes | 5c | 1,623$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,521$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 3c | 1,190$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 1,102$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…52b2backed Yes | 5c | 1,050$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 5c | 1,008$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 5c | 934.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dae…783dbacked Yes | 11c | 887.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 9c | 831$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…5c19backed Yes | 4c | 675.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 664.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 3c | 659.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1289…42aabacked Yes | 6c | 535.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 4c | 528.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…b02cbacked Yes | 4c | 476.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 460.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 421.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb972…6c79backed Yes | 4c | 413.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed Yes | 2c | 406.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 5c | 295.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…e0edbacked Yes | 4c | 254.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21de…217bbacked Yes | 4c | 250.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…ade2backed Yes | 5c | 244.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 5c | 239.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…7296backed Yes | 62c | 162.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03aa…5821backed Yes | 15c | 159.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 10c | 144.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…23f2backed Yes | 11c | 123.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 13c | 76.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…14f8backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 22c | 62.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.