TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,359,877
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,760,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,359,877 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 7,338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed No70c314,137$219,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,279.0837740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5925…b194backed Yes50c243,461$122,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122,011.952638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+73.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes50c238,314$118,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118,772.8512650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed No56c156,193$87,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,974.758937.1%33 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No73c137,872$100,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,242.1164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No50c137,449$69,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,384.4635631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed No44c102,671$45,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,554.83138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee9d…7d47backed Yes22c100,056$21,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,656.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c1…39e2backed No73c99,200$71,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,278.011650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb129…34bfbacked Yes31c92,808$29,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,004.18333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No78c84,444$66,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,155.7110335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1f…907dbacked No54c70,499$38,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,324.832725.9%7 W · 20 L-8.4wins-0.31per pick57cpaid-53.4%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes57c57,801$32,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,759.7616553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes71c56,910$40,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,331.311334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked No64c49,430$31,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,022.71353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes33c46,727$15,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,597.4111323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes51c46,704$23,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,783.9921531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes42c44,282$18,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,443.2519531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes18c41,560$7,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,353.3514821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xa8b8…05cfbacked Yes24c41,060$9,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,69820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes46c40,707$18,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,773.320438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked Yes68c40,288$27,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,584.13764.9%24 W · 13 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+98.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked No69c40,153$27,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,468.667946.8%37 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ac…8669backed Yes37c35,817$13,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,358.561442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+181.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked No48c35,223$16,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,380.528719.5%17 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No39c34,412$13,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,152.869647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No56c33,180$18,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,579.4131649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b55…229cbacked Yes54c32,418$17,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,646.771127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No48c32,221$15,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,698.194042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9b1…38f5backed No72c31,975$23,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,952.36540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+110.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa8…6531backed Yes75c31,975$23,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,916.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes29c31,157$9,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,114.4516526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed No26c31,095$7,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,103.475848.3%28 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No18c29,379$5,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,073.0615230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed No33c28,372$9,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,090.796347.6%30 W · 33 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb83…77eebacked No79c28,266$22,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,864.771764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x943c…1d17backed Yes67c28,092$18,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,949.883240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No52c27,882$14,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,424.1918531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb6…50fcbacked Yes69c27,379$18,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,830.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-61.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e6d…08a8backed Yes30c26,948$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes15c26,559$4,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,040.053831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8633…a08dbacked Yes45c25,153$11,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,269.674136.6%15 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7525…cde1backed No36c24,865$8,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,962.274537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No63c23,344$14,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,678.5228126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes38c23,007$8,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,709.82740.7%11 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+53.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x454e…36cbbacked No48c22,657$10,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,894.881258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked No58c22,088$12,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,364.7817934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59f7…bf7fbacked Yes41c22,058$8,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,946.550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No58c21,988$12,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,160.0716739.5%66 W · 101 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed No46c21,941$10,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,808.258633.7%29 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7a…29f6backed No46c21,855$10,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,786.631735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-34.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No26c21,750$5,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,184.5520549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb66e…c2ddbacked No41c21,621$8,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,830.91127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No56c21,614$12,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,612.8438247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb784…d061backed No66c20,886$13,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,202.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e44…94fabacked No69c20,617$14,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,435.321877.8%14 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes35c20,086$6,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,998.9712629.4%37 W · 89 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes25c20,000$4,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,915.884360.5%26 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes59c19,709$11,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,551.6619648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No29c19,158$5,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,606.0326429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked No69c18,831$12,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,890.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes57c18,806$10,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,652.6248923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd902…cdb9backed No68c18,773$12,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,079.524242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes45c18,757$8,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,410.021181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick52cpaid+63.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No26c18,601$4,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,710.3336750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed No74c18,028$13,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,690.536045%27 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes13c17,693$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,24030649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x0f65…e944backed No79c17,407$13,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,660.81475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No61c17,323$10,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,692.2335347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe176…7f65backed Yes70c17,057$11,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,913.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked No49c17,053$8,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,647.577943%34 W · 45 L+11.7wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+49.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes25c16,896$4,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,209.683240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20d9…5490backed Yes73c16,383$11,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,927.765851.7%30 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No46c16,142$7,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,700.223040%12 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa20a…d92dbacked Yes74c15,899$11,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,747.513548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No59c15,639$9,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,380.9335355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8101…e7bebacked Yes64c15,625$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No63c15,621$9,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,847.256262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28aa…8f75backed No80c15,586$12,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,154.251457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No49c15,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,599.994553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No46c14,942$6,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,000.9135921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed Yes72c14,763$10,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,636.28144.4%36 W · 45 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No32c14,754$4,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,046.1814228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No41c14,696$6,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,622.922333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No21c14,608$3,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,483.975635.7%20 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7818…d185backed Yes54c14,414$7,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,841.876149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes38c14,334$5,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,377.5117737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddef…d52bbacked Yes70c14,281$9,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,952.072213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-78.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No75c14,281$10,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,608.8113850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699c…5dc1backed No79c14,239$11,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,931.981637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-44.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5f94…7d96backed No55c14,191$7,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,413.54669.6%32 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes54c14,183$7,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,623.1127643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x870c…49cebacked No31c14,111$4,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,678.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed No46c13,919$6,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,461.61650%8 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No55c13,841$7,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,246.7416125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No53c13,785$7,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,491.7316739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29ce…e196backed No54c13,768$7,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,296.21963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+30.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No66c13,755$9,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,708.4828750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes35c13,629$4,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,748.26238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes29c13,465$3,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,904.838845.5%40 W · 48 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.