Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a9ef67522be6f0e4dcb97ac56e064efe6b14e54713ee2050418d311883c31ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $940,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $911,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $940,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 550 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 76c | 37,370$28,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,914.28 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 9c | 36,086$3,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,399.3 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 9c | 27,234$2,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,321.61 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 3c | 23,019$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.36 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 23c | 18,962$4,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,370.29 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3732…43acbacked Yes | 19c | 17,498$3,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,312.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 28c | 15,961$4,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,408.13 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…ba2fbacked Yes | 3c | 14,590$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.97 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 25c | 14,459$3,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,681.54 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 6c | 13,841$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.74 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…356cbacked Yes | 20c | 10,280$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.83 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 8c | 10,084$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.85 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…8669backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Yes | 11c | 9,716$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.68 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +624.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 25c | 8,788$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,169.92 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 19c | 8,630$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.42 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 15c | 8,575$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.29 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 28c | 8,215$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290.32 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac87…ae28backed Yes | 30c | 8,161$2,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f63abacked No | 70c | 8,139$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,438.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 16c | 8,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed No | 67c | 7,862$5,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.58 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 16c | 7,500$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.99 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 8c | 6,859$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.28 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 15c | 6,732$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.1 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x053d…caedbacked Yes | 11c | 6,429$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.82 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 71c | 6,157$4,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.9 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 14c | 6,018$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.3 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 4c | 5,674$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.17 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 6c | 5,353$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.55 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 28c | 5,184$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.39 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…a47fbacked Yes | 28c | 5,067$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,061$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 70c | 5,024$3,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.04 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 15c | 4,826$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08fabacked Yes | 14c | 4,647$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.63 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes | 4c | 4,554$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 13c | 4,359$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.21 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Yes | 34c | 4,313$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.07 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 72c | 3,990$2,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.06 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 3,705$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 21c | 3,595$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.57 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 29c | 3,567$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.4 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Yes | 9c | 3,551$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.39 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49eb…cf37backed Yes | 30c | 3,283$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…575cbacked Yes | 20c | 3,174$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.45 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +390.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed Yes | 9c | 3,170$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +309.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes | 31c | 3,159$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.32 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 75c | 3,120$2,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.08 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed Yes | 26c | 2,947$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.41 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 25c | 2,876$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.75 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 71c | 2,809$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.17 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 10c | 2,805$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.59 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed Yes | 26c | 2,760$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.71 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 42c | 2,694$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.08 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,647$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.95 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 17c | 2,647$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.59 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 2,576$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 15c | 2,521$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.74 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed No | 79c | 2,518$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.38 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 70c | 2,400$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 7c | 2,347$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 6c | 2,300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c0…28e6backed Yes | 27c | 2,249$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +19%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,049$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 11c | 2,009$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,958$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.07 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 1,920$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 17c | 1,738$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.2 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed Yes | 40c | 1,720$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 32c | 1,671$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.95 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,657$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 20c | 1,650$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.5 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 1,644$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.92 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 71c | 1,642$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.04 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 14c | 1,594$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.04 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,591$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.44 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…88aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x318d…74febacked Yes | 16c | 1,495$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.59 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,463$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…e5aabacked Yes | 9c | 1,389$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…d030backed Yes | 22c | 1,364$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked Yes | 15c | 1,343$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 72c | 1,294$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.66 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…be37backed Yes | 8c | 1,291$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +8.4wins | +0.26per pick | 33cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb578…0ddcbacked Yes | 30c | 1,286$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25fc…dd0dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,285$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed No | 79c | 1,273$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.57 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked No | 41c | 1,267$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.48 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,266$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.01 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked No | 73c | 1,260$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.54 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x432b…ae9abacked Yes | 28c | 1,227$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,217$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132e…5ffebacked Yes | 30c | 1,200$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.