TailMyPicks
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$940,446
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$911,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $940,446 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 550 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf396…ed0dbacked No76c37,370$28,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,914.283151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes9c36,086$3,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.348923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes9c27,234$2,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,321.6116638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked Yes3c23,019$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.365712.3%7 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes23c18,962$4,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,370.2920549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3732…43acbacked Yes19c17,498$3,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,312.3955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+76%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes28c15,961$4,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,408.1311038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2c8…ba2fbacked Yes3c14,590$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.971926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes25c14,459$3,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,681.5436227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes6c13,841$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.7411842.4%50 W · 68 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd13e…356cbacked Yes20c10,280$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.83147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes8c10,084$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.8528734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12ac…8669backed Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+181.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56f0…3068backed Yes11c9,716$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.681010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+624.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes25c8,788$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,169.9211527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes19c8,630$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.4210226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe000…cbb1backed Yes15c8,575$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.298441.7%35 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes28c8,215$2,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,290.3215230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac87…ae28backed Yes30c8,161$2,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,447.371136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdef6…f63abacked No70c8,139$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,438.661353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+38.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes16c8,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24026429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee7…17b0backed No67c7,862$5,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,618.582718.5%5 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-59.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes16c7,500$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.9921531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes8c6,859$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.2822529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes15c6,732$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.131241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x053d…caedbacked Yes11c6,429$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.822821.4%6 W · 22 L-5.0wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-60.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed No71c6,157$4,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,811.95541.8%23 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes14c6,018$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.340939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes4c5,674$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.172742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes6c5,353$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.55128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-67.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412c…2d87backed Yes28c5,184$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.397433.8%25 W · 49 L+11.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+259.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x93d0…a47fbacked Yes28c5,067$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c5,061$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.685071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No70c5,024$3,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.0421259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb89b…1a22backed Yes15c4,826$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5acd…08fabacked Yes14c4,647$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.636939.1%27 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes4c4,554$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes13c4,359$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.2142329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Yes34c4,313$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.071936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No72c3,990$2,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.065532.7%18 W · 37 L-16.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-53.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes6c3,705$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.23717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes21c3,595$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.5718738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes29c3,567$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.43943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Yes9c3,551$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.396530.8%20 W · 45 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x49eb…cf37backed Yes30c3,283$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-46.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa282…575cbacked Yes20c3,174$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.451711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+390.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b3…c131backed Yes9c3,170$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.63517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+309.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes31c3,159$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.325151%26 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No75c3,120$2,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.0816061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed Yes26c2,947$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.417935.4%28 W · 51 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes25c2,876$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.7516650%83 W · 83 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb48b…04ebbacked No71c2,809$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.178357.8%48 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Yes10c2,805$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.597627.6%21 W · 55 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+52%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd87d…52f9backed Yes26c2,760$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.719530.5%29 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No42c2,694$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.0847334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd2…084dbacked Yes16c2,647$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.956124.6%15 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes17c2,647$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.5920823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes2c2,576$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.651657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes15c2,521$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.7415523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f94…7d96backed No79c2,518$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.384669.6%32 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No70c2,400$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71127643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8790…60c2backed Yes7c2,347$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1675313.2%7 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-4.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes6c2,300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13810737.4%40 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x63c0…28e6backed Yes27c2,249$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+19%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes7c2,049$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9351138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes11c2,009$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22512037.5%45 W · 75 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4608036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004725.5%12 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-59.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes13c2,000$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2668333.7%28 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes14c1,958$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.0718639.8%74 W · 112 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes6c1,920$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2812325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked Yes22c1,800$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39214944.3%66 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed Yes17c1,738$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.221333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0785…ecb4backed Yes40c1,720$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6825550.9%28 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked Yes32c1,671$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.951926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes11c1,657$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1836013.3%8 W · 52 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes20c1,650$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.519119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes13c1,644$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.9244224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed No71c1,642$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.046653%35 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Yes14c1,594$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.0410645.3%48 W · 58 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes26c1,591$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.4416832.1%54 W · 114 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x83d2…88aebacked Yes5c1,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x318d…74febacked Yes16c1,495$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.591618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes16c1,463$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.989222.8%21 W · 71 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b5c…e5aabacked Yes9c1,389$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2771…d030backed Yes22c1,364$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002910.3%3 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-50.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51b2…10cebacked Yes15c1,343$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+51.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No72c1,294$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.6633337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd479…be37backed Yes8c1,291$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.13259.4%19 W · 13 L+8.4wins+0.26per pick33cpaid+110.1%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xb578…0ddcbacked Yes30c1,286$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25fc…dd0dbacked Yes23c1,285$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick35cpaid+95.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed No79c1,273$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.572748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked No41c1,267$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.484639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes23c1,266$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.016813.2%9 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682e…70bdbacked No73c1,260$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.543745.9%17 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+26.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x432b…ae9abacked Yes28c1,227$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347850%4 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+204.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,217$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.851,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x132e…5ffebacked Yes30c1,200$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.