Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3094a2b925483a06aa72945a1472e311e5eb6be75284f61e0c008e279508ddf6

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,220,135
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,316,262

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,220,135 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No	10c	152,413$14,746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,746.46	306	49%150 W · 156 L	+77.8wins	+0.25per pick	24cpaid	+105.8%equal weight	76+0.24 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed No	0c	117,249$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.8	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+32.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	76c	110,981$84,426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84,425.82	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes	20c	90,497$18,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71,996.59	148	21.6%32 W · 116 L	-24.5wins	-0.17per pick	38cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5925…b194backed Yes	40c	48,475$19,329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29,146.55	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No	21c	42,674$8,781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,781.12	142	28.2%40 W · 102 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+34%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No	68c	42,419$28,638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28,638.25	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9ff…79dcbacked Yes	31c	38,128$11,904 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26,224.09	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+5.0wins	+0.33per pick	40cpaid	+116.5%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	70c	37,198$26,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,063.75	287	50.2%144 W · 143 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7a…29f6backed No	3c	32,441$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked No	1c	28,591$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.73	77	26%20 W · 57 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x699c…5dc1backed No	71c	27,782$19,821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,821.07	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-3.5wins	-0.22per pick	60cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No	46c	27,266$12,561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,560.71	377	40.1%151 W · 226 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes	44c	25,851$11,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,602.35	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0652…9134backed No	71c	23,950$17,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,009.86	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-9.9wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	23c	23,831$5,441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,390.16	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes	41c	22,257$9,016 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,241.04	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+3.6wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+53.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No	0c	22,200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.17	274	2.9%8 W · 266 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	5c	21,589$1,141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,448.42	476	9.9%47 W · 429 L	+15.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes	37c	21,488$7,992 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,495.81	134	41.8%56 W · 78 L	+6.7wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No	1c	20,721$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.41	137	38%52 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x145a…5e86backed Yes	58c	20,333$11,693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,639.83	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed No	2c	20,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes	69c	19,066$13,110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,956.85	110	38.2%42 W · 68 L	+9.0wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes	33c	18,033$5,912 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,121.26	177	37.3%66 W · 111 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No	78c	17,527$13,614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,614.01	167	39.5%66 W · 101 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes	16c	17,035$2,728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,306.87	96	47.9%46 W · 50 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes	21c	16,723$3,523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,199.53	165	26.1%43 W · 122 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	26c	16,481$4,303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,178.48	175	30.9%54 W · 121 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	44c	16,172$7,182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,989.78	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	19c	15,968$2,984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,983.94	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe555…a91dbacked Yes	39c	15,763$6,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,682.52	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5287…3a16backed Yes	17c	14,702$2,562 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,139.95	14	92.9%13 W · 1 L	+8.1wins	+0.58per pick	35cpaid	+209.2%equal weight	73+0.21 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No	45c	14,328$6,501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,501.33	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc479…2759backed No	6c	14,328$877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$877.14	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes	27c	14,288$3,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,387.99	113	23.9%27 W · 86 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes	26c	14,082$3,620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,462.16	121	52.9%64 W · 57 L	+12.9wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No	50c	11,665$5,793 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,793.02	359	21.4%77 W · 282 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed No	72c	11,644$8,392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,391.54	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-11.1wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	+123.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x391f…b017backed No	5c	11,449$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.38	70	61.4%43 W · 27 L	+6.3wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d17…f3adbacked No	2c	11,177$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.53	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47d4…071ebacked Yes	17c	11,115$1,938 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,177.86	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+254.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5882…55a2backed No	77c	11,106$8,553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,553.4	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed No	17c	11,056$1,894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,893.97	155	41.9%65 W · 90 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes	36c	11,000$3,989 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,010.77	106	39.6%42 W · 64 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1c…02bbbacked No	64c	10,950$7,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,000	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-48%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	23c	10,100$2,332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,768.65	473	34%161 W · 312 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked No	1c	10,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	45	11.1%5 W · 40 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f90…517dbacked No	22c	9,798$2,153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,153.33	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.12per pick	57cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes	13c	9,736$1,239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,496.33	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	-5.5wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed No	78c	9,686$7,588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,588.27	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee7…17b0backed No	12c	9,600$1,196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,195.99	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes	36c	9,587$3,451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,135.97	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	+6.6wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked No	45c	9,409$4,263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,262.83	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+3.8wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc881…b071backed Yes	75c	9,400$7,006 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,394.38	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.4wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes	36c	9,121$3,243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,877.54	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	+9.7wins	+0.25per pick	24cpaid	+186.9%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No	16c	9,043$1,463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,463.35	55	23.6%13 W · 42 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes	32c	8,977$2,917 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,059.45	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	+4.7wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2162…f0b1backed No	73c	8,907$6,462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,462	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	4c	8,815$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,425.11	358	8.7%31 W · 327 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+99.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No	38c	8,401$3,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,209.35	366	34.4%126 W · 240 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e2…76d9backed No	58c	8,398$4,910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,910.43	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No	80c	8,361$6,657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,657.31	281	26.3%74 W · 207 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1f…907dbacked No	73c	8,141$5,978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,977.73	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-8.4wins	-0.31per pick	57cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x8dd5…8563backed Yes	24c	8,067$1,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,166.65	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+183%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes	52c	7,932$4,101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,830.77	73	37%27 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17aa…42febacked No	32c	7,871$2,556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,556	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadec…3c7bbacked Yes	58c	7,835$4,527 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,308.48	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+2.4wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+102.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5be7…186cbacked No	1c	7,791$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf500…7d09backed No	2c	7,599$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.99	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+2.6wins	+0.14per pick	30cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No	43c	7,428$3,223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,223	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes	10c	7,322$719 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,603.26	86	26.7%23 W · 63 L	+8.7wins	+0.10per pick	17cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x95e7…9561backed No	71c	7,307$5,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,200	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc898…b0f8backed No	6c	7,297$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked No	1c	7,186$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.43	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	+9.7wins	+0.13per pick	36cpaid	+156.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x74bf…2a6ebacked No	59c	6,963$4,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,123.85	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.14per pick	59cpaid	-32%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x506b…b0febacked Yes	49c	6,848$3,355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,492.42	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No	60c	6,390$3,816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,816.16	322	43.5%140 W · 182 L	+13.2wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes	36c	6,125$2,206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,919.67	409	39.6%162 W · 247 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes	34c	5,897$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,896.96	382	37.7%144 W · 238 L	+16.4wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes	26c	5,858$1,530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,328.41	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Yes	40c	5,732$2,293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,439.87	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.4wins	+0.34per pick	37cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa429…368abacked No	77c	5,710$4,418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,418.38	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-11.4wins	-0.20per pick	67cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes	10c	5,595$547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,048.01	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked No	74c	5,267$3,889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,889.48	79	46.8%37 W · 42 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34f9…0540backed No	1c	5,237$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.52	78	37.2%29 W · 49 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes	24c	5,225$1,246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,979.77	161	31.7%51 W · 110 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No	1c	5,211$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.23	185	31.9%59 W · 126 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	11c	5,033$565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565.48	197	39.1%77 W · 120 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdb5…6be1backed No	68c	5,000$3,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,400	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6000…f302backed No	63c	5,000$3,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,150	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.6wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	15c	4,999$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,249.13	205	49.8%102 W · 103 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08eb…9ca4backed No	1c	4,937$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.43	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+6.5wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	42c	4,902$2,068 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,834.73	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes	10c	4,656$466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,190.48	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	26c	4,644$1,223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,421.21	458	43.7%200 W · 258 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked Yes	35c	4,600$1,589 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,010.57	136	50%68 W · 68 L	+9.2wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No	1c	4,590$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.98	166	50%83 W · 83 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes	11c	4,571$486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,084.98	53	43.4%23 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No	69c	4,551$3,146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,145.94	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event