Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd839785e6d4e4fdd44ef0e90f315eecccde47578924491e6ae74499e9f62d29e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,978,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,733,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,978,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 806 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 5c | 126,120$6,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,212.67 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 4c | 116,720$5,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,236.93 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 8c | 107,843$8,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,234.16 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 11c | 107,182$11,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,796.78 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 10c | 76,114$7,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,778.76 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…b194backed Yes | 14c | 52,147$7,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,486.17 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 21c | 50,231$10,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,550.92 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 4c | 46,441$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.99 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 26c | 32,657$8,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,375.34 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 26c | 30,005$7,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,931.12 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 44c | 26,207$11,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,472.26 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 8c | 24,077$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.14 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 21,583$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 12c | 18,445$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,227.82 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 16c | 18,376$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960.79 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed Yes | 0c | 17,680$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 12c | 17,384$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.12 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,000$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 2c | 16,790$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.32 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 22c | 16,629$3,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,716.38 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 16c | 15,010$2,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,365.61 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee96…0634backed Yes | 5c | 13,910$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 68c | 13,457$9,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,354.82 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 15c | 12,762$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.15 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…d6aabacked No | 78c | 12,733$9,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,737.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 79c | 11,813$9,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.08 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 4c | 10,122$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407b…1dbdbacked Yes | 13c | 10,114$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…7674backed No | 52c | 9,855$5,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,730.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…b87fbacked Yes | 32c | 9,446$2,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,980.08 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 71c | 9,189$6,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,697.25 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ce…e196backed No | 69c | 8,398$5,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 38c | 8,314$3,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,142.8 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 66c | 8,018$5,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.73 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 5c | 7,946$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.46 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d1…b590backed No | 74c | 7,919$5,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 26c | 6,745$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.9 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 63c | 6,600$4,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,418 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 23c | 6,000$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 67c | 5,943$4,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.51 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Yes | 42c | 5,812$2,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,442 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…f221backed Yes | 11c | 5,713$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.84 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 19c | 5,310$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.11 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 7c | 5,252$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.96 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 10c | 5,075$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 75c | 5,066$3,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.47 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d2…efb2backed No | 79c | 5,059$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 62c | 4,951$3,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.08 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 61c | 4,944$2,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,951.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed No | 67c | 4,836$3,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.15 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 35c | 4,726$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.26 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 40c | 4,680$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.47 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7a…29f6backed No | 68c | 4,366$2,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 70c | 4,226$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.25 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 35c | 4,224$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.25 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 22c | 4,110$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.81 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 35c | 4,001$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.22 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 62c | 3,941$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.83 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 71c | 3,788$2,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.33 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 33c | 3,500$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.34 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 63c | 3,500$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.71 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 13c | 3,476$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.33 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 14c | 3,450$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.5 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -9.6wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…9a67backed Yes | 8c | 3,424$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed Yes | 7c | 3,422$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…ac80backed No | 75c | 3,368$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.63 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 26c | 3,360$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.42 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed No | 71c | 3,316$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.4 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…8669backed No | 62c | 3,268$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 22c | 3,267$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 25c | 3,200$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.49 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 64c | 3,154$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.63 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,056$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 76c | 3,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed No | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 8c | 2,992$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.39 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 15c | 2,885$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.27 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 20c | 2,850$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.83 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 2c | 2,843$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked No | 68c | 2,836$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.83 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 13c | 2,833$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.78 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0475…ed7abacked Yes | 27c | 2,668$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.61 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 38c | 2,500$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.33 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 22c | 2,494$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed No | 69c | 2,476$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.01 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 28c | 2,386$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.25 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 26c | 2,360$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.4 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d81…06edbacked Yes | 43c | 2,342$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…f361backed Yes | 43c | 2,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 70c | 2,275$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.82 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed No | 63c | 2,206$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.56 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 15c | 2,198$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.15 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 28c | 2,178$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.72 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,135$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 19c | 2,100$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,039$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.32 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b49…ab21backed Yes | 34c | 2,038$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.