Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x584e1e9471b6d392d161ba638403d6c25e0b687475027fa5add32f4a10f32afb

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $173,531
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $168,407

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,531 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	5c	47,500$2,316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,316.31	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes	5c	12,235$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$614.19	118	42.4%50 W · 68 L	+6.3wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	5c	10,000$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.57	287	34.5%99 W · 188 L	+21.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	3c	9,600$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.86	225	29.8%67 W · 158 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes	4c	6,118$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.1	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	2c	4,355$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.27	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f3…0f9cbacked Yes	3c	3,866$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.16	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+169.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Yes	3c	3,435$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	65	30.8%20 W · 45 L	-5.2wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,871$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.72	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	2,760$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Yes	4c	2,159$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.35	76	27.6%21 W · 55 L	+5.2wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+52%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes	3c	1,930$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.71	152	30.3%46 W · 106 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	3c	1,796$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.75	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+41%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	2c	1,633$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.63	511	38.7%198 W · 313 L	+18.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	3c	1,480$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.15	371	7%26 W · 345 L	+10.6wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe000…cbb1backed Yes	4c	1,417$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.07	84	41.7%35 W · 49 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	1c	1,300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	423	11.6%49 W · 374 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes	4c	1,160$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.91	165	7.3%12 W · 153 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9994…d87bbacked Yes	3c	1,126$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.91	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-3.1wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	4c	1,121$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.99	501	30.5%153 W · 348 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes	5c	1,000$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.97	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes	6c	949.29$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.87	149	45%67 W · 82 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	4c	899.44$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.96	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes	3c	802.93$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.04	266	19.2%51 W · 215 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes	4c	800$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	64	59.4%38 W · 26 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	2c	717$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b6…3a92backed Yes	2c	704.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+13.0wins	+0.17per pick	40cpaid	+75.1%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Yes	3c	600$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-9.6wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked Yes	2c	587.19$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	77	26%20 W · 57 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2222…f221backed Yes	6c	520$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80fd…615fbacked Yes	3c	512.91$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	6cpaid	+825.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	5c	500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	291	29.9%87 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes	5c	500$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.17	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	3c	441.05$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	203	6.4%13 W · 190 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1006…0782backed Yes	4c	405$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+53.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	179	34.6%62 W · 117 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc190…312ebacked Yes	4c	374.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.93	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	356.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	199	5%10 W · 189 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes	5c	326.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	73	37%27 W · 46 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab2d…0b70backed Yes	3c	302.47$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-4.7wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa204…bf99backed Yes	6c	209.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked Yes	42c	119.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event