TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc0b6…3a92

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
233
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Middle East, grading 64 out of 100 (+0.13 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 64 out of 100; worst UFC at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT7856.4%44 W · 34 L+13.0wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+75.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
Middle East — the 78 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.7
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+91.7%+$197.3
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.53
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+73%+$12.11
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+71.9%+$66.94
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+65.4%+$71.19
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.57
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+216.1%+$60.99
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+137.1%+$308.28
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$101.97
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.6
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+74.3%+$161.69
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$91.5
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$82
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.79
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.97
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$29
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.63
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+319.6%+$502.37
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.44
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$70
Showing 25 of 78 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT6536.9%24 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 65 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Cup Finals: Coin Toss Resultbacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$98
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.05
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.75
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$26.5
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$32.89
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$79.17
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.2
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Croatia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.75
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.5
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.5
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+400%+$84
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$203
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$235
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$235.5
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$93
Showing 25 of 65 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+74.8%+$57.02
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$107
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.73
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$72
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$43
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.15
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$35
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.86
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.8
Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.98
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+1,190.2%+$369
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.28
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.2
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+393.8%+$586.63
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$239.07
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.51
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+93.2%+$170.03
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.26
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$219
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.67
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.8
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.72
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.95
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$19.2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$73.5
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+163.9%+$44.59
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.89
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.97
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-47.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+189.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+57.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+215.5%+$119.26
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.36
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.