TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf7fe…e42a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: AI, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category AI at 52 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$121.8
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,399.76
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$955Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+219.9%+$2,098.85
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$3,161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,161.07
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.97
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.9
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$840
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$61.2
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,991Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+27%+$537.17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$46,723Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$12,313.37
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$569.54
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,108Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+224.9%+$2,492
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$556Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$555.95
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,227Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+34%+$416.99
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$63.21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,924Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+32.4%+$1,271.35
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$8,067Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,066.82
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$613Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$612.83
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$930Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$929.91
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,298Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$1,381.5
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.67
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$4,516Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$2,093.8
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,302Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,302.16
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$90.3
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.45
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.84
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$92.94
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+25%+$4.41
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$96.69
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.97
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$46.2
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$22.45
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$681Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$681.49
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$47.21
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$98.87
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.2
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$26.1
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.51
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.52
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.52
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+181.7%+$128.99
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.27
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.23
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+351.6%+$312.04
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.66
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-60.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$557Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$557.4
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.4
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.4
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$2,900
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$980Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$980
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,366Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+42.3%+$999.8
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$880Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$880.26
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$530
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.02
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$740Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$260
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.6
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.8
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.6
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.25
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+150%+$599.99
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$400
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$360
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$549.99
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$132.49
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Tariff" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+100%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$432
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.