Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe799cadfd8fcfb11f2922e6226c0c244d37601b7a29d4b2e2527aca542420b38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 28c | 2,454$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.67 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 34c | 1,767$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.62 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 1,592$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 555.11$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.63 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 75c | 540.98$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.75 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…28c4backed Yes | 35c | 466.55$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 465.9$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes | 37c | 435.63$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 29c | 425$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 419.28$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 36c | 392$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 377$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 342$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 63c | 323.22$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.11 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 64c | 315.46$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.79 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 68c | 311.64$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…d402backed Yes | 36c | 277.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 27c | 273.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 35c | 270.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 41c | 250$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 240.26$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 238.49$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 233.1$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 27c | 229.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 227.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 45c | 201.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 181.64$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 177.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 175.67$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 58c | 174.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 169.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 167.72$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 162$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 161$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 32c | 154.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 66c | 151.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 30c | 151.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked Yes | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511a…f43fbacked Yes | 23c | 147.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 145$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 27c | 142.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed Yes | 38c | 130.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 130.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 128.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 113.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 17c | 108$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…faddbacked Yes | 39c | 105.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 68c | 104$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 90.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 35c | 88.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 85.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 79.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…3e7abacked Yes | 27c | 69.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 61.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 36c | 59.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 72c | 55.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…ccc5backed No | 67c | 53.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 36c | 53.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 51.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 68c | 49.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 44c | 49.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked No | 62c | 48.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 35c | 47.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e42abacked Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61b…b4adbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 43.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 27c | 41.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 70c | 40.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 72c | 39.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 34c | 38.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 66c | 36.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…c6cabacked No | 66c | 33.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.