TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,047 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes0c7,765$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0328324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed Yes0c3,799$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.223143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes48c1,796$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.476,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No39c1,530$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.585,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No66c1,518$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.66845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes17c1,446$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.6242849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes64c1,232$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.822,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No58c968$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.174,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No40c744.54$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.4928244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes32c630.98$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.0735429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes36c618.4$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.2812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No63c585.46$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.673,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No49c565.2$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.8239346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes50c511.06$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.8320445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No42c450.28$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.341331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes37c407.08$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15021236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7711…41e6backed Yes77c383.41$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.75425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-68.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes12c362.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes52c355.23$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6590040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes13c337.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.941,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed No56c291.1$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9214638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…d8b2backed Yes69c289$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.66418.8%12 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes16c287.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes48c284.1$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6740265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No38c282.03$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.6526265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No42c273.05$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.2753951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes51c260$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1333962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes27c258.48$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.24,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes36c249.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6534918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes46c241.67$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes27c237.81$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.374926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes10c231.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.498,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed No53c227.83$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.845752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No69c224.71$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.432,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d98…261ebacked Yes76c218.48$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.756750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba2d…d402backed Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.59944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked No39c214.54$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.099960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes78c210$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6740237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff32…7da9backed Yes38c207.66$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.886536.9%24 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked No73c200$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.21225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-58.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes22c182$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0936930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No57c166.94$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.281,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes15c166$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.482,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes31c165.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.463,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No64c157.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.115054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes16c149.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.861,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes39c146.42$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.222,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes39c143.32$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes19c138.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8248919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No46c134.3$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.92,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes80c134.06$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0212941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes11c133.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.387,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c128.8$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.14,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd69f…e526backed Yes17c119.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e18…ad5bbacked Yes20c117.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8590%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9dd…4226backed Yes48c115.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.464045%18 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No76c113.26$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.092,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes47c110.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.121,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No77c108.8$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0246457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84e3…3dfdbacked No79c101.14$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1414878.4%116 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No30c101.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1124751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No30c100.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.767949.4%39 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9876…86b4backed Yes74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.81566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes20c99.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.029548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No44c96.45$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.497,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdab3…79b1backed No28c95.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.268347%39 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes22c95.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes62c92.01$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.691,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No38c89.63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No76c86.89$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.852,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d8…03eabacked Yes17c86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6211612.1%14 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked No34c82.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.587231.9%23 W · 49 L-8.5wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes33c80.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.582,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes24c80$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No34c78.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4643563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9149…f2dabacked No37c70.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.592885.7%24 W · 4 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+41.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No39c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0438146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6283…3e7abacked Yes22c69.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.552231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No48c68.34$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6117759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c7…1c86backed No30c67.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1811844.1%52 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes77c64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0933561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No78c63.3$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.181,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No55c60.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2265353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…4c78backed Yes65c60.06$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.846817.6%12 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+60.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes51c54.73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8135232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes44c52.49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.242,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes53c51.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.152,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a1b…1c78backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2517460.3%105 W · 69 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd3e…feb5backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.95944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes41c49.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.382,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes62c49.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7718222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363b…6ff7backed No26c48.45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.842060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes52c46.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.992,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x104d…5abbbacked No56c43.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.113336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No68c42.62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.472,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac71…f74cbacked No49c42.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.738962.9%56 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes57c40.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.426,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7510463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.