TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,141 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91f8…d951backed No62c2,092$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.315752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes48c1,595$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.952,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c1,212$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.283,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No54c1,125$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.185054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1468…0745backed Yes1c1,096$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5413138.9%51 W · 80 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes49c1,090$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.6442820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes41c692.9$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.2648523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes36c677.29$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.262,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes29c603.43$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9921236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c522$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.734,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No69c520.26$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.242,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No55c470.3$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21067158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes38c454.94$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.541850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes17c429.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No57c418.56$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.6561760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c392.1$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.155,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff32…7da9backed Yes49c330.73$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.436536.9%24 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes47c248.32$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.111,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes29c235.38$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.466,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c230.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.092,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No71c215.67$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.734,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No53c212.43$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.994,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes14c177.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.926219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c170.16$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.865,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes44c168$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.196620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.633452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes41c144.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.633,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked Yes33c143.4$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.717231.9%23 W · 49 L-8.5wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No55c142.91$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7939346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c130.34$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes30c128$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9180130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes31c123.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.632,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c119.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.99,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes46c117.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6874926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes54c116.04$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7690040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes32c115.94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.771,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No61c111.32$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.323,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No63c111.31$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5894552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No63c110$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.72,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes53c108.69$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9115027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5049646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3936930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes41c99.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.954,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes52c95.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010023%23 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x736e…e8c2backed Yes38c91.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.471637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe549…0bcebacked Yes34c91.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.483537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No61c88.64$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.481,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86a9…9642backed Yes57c88.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.281338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes27c88.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes25c85.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.291,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No47c84.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No60c84.22$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.612,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes53c84.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.993429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes32c81.65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.372,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No49c78.68$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2165353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c75.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.667,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x896e…b02abacked Yes40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes28c74.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.171,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes40c74.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No60c73.83$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.522,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No62c72.13$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4824164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…4c78backed Yes62c70.77$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.686817.6%12 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+60.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No60c70.72$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2917633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes25c70.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3248919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6283…3e7abacked Yes37c69.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.692231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No60c69$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.613444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ca…59eebacked Yes23c65.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.825729.8%17 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.427461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes25c59.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0616045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes34c58.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2613…08e3backed Yes34c58.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed No71c57.56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6623668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes37c55.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No70c54.24$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.198565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No46c52.42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.366543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes32c52.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…c418backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes39c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2644646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc209…7082backed Yes29c49.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.359935.4%35 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad5b…faddbacked Yes51c49.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid+9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No60c46.24$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.592,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No69c45.35$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.972,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No54c45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd132…d314backed Yes48c44.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.53751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes25c43.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7913430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ed…8993backed No66c41.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.261952.6%10 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No51c41.16$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2541966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes52c40.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.732,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.222,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce1…3a27backed No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes26c38.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1431936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No53c37.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.782,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b4…6bb9backed Yes35c35.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.261266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No74c32.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4115369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c16…d262backed No79c31.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.857757.1%44 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed No58c31.56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2615334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ce4…46aebacked Yes35c30.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.74633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.