Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5515be86db625b39a685f4ede4be67d3a96670f816e4fcf1018e02266ef7678d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 20c | 2,971$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,375.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 79c | 2,037$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.92 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 1,862$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 1,529$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,336$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.24 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 49c | 1,175$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 967.78$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…36a2backed No | 78c | 839.39$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 775.67$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 737.49$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 719.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 660.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.39 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 15c | 645.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.98 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 537.89$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.5 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 18c | 458.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 457.26$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 417$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 8c | 378.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.38 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 327.08$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.17 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 32c | 306.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.26 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 47c | 301.18$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.3 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 4c | 285.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.05 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 76c | 282.13$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 5c | 281$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.92 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 7c | 275.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.99 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 6c | 249.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 32c | 222.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 38c | 216.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 58c | 214.36$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 25c | 210$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.9 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 37c | 201.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…e023backed Yes | 12c | 194.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +397.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 187.68$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 11c | 169.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 54c | 158.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…9dedbacked Yes | 26c | 151$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 146.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 44c | 142.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 25c | 142.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 31c | 136.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 135.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 36c | 131.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 38c | 120.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 10c | 115.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.68 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 66c | 114.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 53c | 110.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 40c | 110.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 28c | 107.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.09 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 47c | 99.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 56c | 97.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 71c | 89.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 60c | 85.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 30c | 79.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 66c | 73.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 35c | 73.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 71.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…a164backed Yes | 54c | 70.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 64c | 62.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 56c | 60.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 64c | 59.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 39c | 58.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 27c | 53.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9046…1fd4backed Yes | 38c | 52.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 23c | 44.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 34c | 42.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0326…370fbacked No | 63c | 40.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked No | 60c | 38.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 37c | 34.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 66c | 33.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes | 53c | 30.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 63c | 28.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 75c | 26.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…90f0backed No | 44c | 22.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 51c | 22.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed No | 68c | 21.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 20.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked No | 75c | 20.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…c411backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.