TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,984
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,335

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,984 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c10,332$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.133,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes32c4,412$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.982,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda33…daccbacked No63c2,754$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.885834.5%20 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa83c…a8f4backed No75c2,095$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.812759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c95…8188backed Yes25c1,373$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.619122%20 W · 71 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+359.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No68c1,335$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.542,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No65c1,126$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.664,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes13c1,124$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1742849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes36c911$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.9620231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes30c825.15$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.6115027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes20c734.17$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.91,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes22c704.69$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.531,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No74c690.59$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.183,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No74c684.59$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.0928441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes6c652.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.786420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No67c613.33$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.643,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c596.5$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.365,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Yes26c559.69$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7711935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed01…89b7backed Yes37c549$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.137552%39 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes15c543.21$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.352935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff3e…953fbacked Yes35c539.06$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.314139%16 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No65c538.77$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.312,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes24c497.52$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2636930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes34c484.01$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.722650%13 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No74c479.63$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.188,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes24c456.62$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6196620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a35…bdc6backed Yes37c441.03$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.272334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-41.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No68c432.38$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes18c404.95$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No71c401.39$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.586,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes21c373.58$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.711,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes12c370.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No66c360$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.431,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes22c334.15$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes27c322.53$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.696,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes28c287.73$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.562532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3016…54e9backed Yes20c286.79$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5613614.7%20 W · 116 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No67c281.23$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.121,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes37c278.14$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9113732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a0…4134backed Yes18c275.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014823%34 W · 114 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes31c266.81$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.357231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes37c254.59$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.219133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x997d…5d15backed No77c251$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes24c242.52$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c234.37$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes18c232.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.852,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef93…388fbacked Yes38c220.14$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.65955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Yes22c219.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5822350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No68c219.13$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.731,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed No70c213.48$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.715334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c213$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.334,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4bf…ef7cbacked Yes11c200.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.631827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5849646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes35c200$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2227129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c199.6$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.433,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes33c195.14$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.711122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8bca…0500backed Yes28c192.41$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.58538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes33c191.97$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7545540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No75c180.77$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes20c174.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.987,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes16c173.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes18c172.42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.511,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes35c160.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9516543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes16c159.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.621236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No69c152.87$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.062,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No70c152.4$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.13,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ff…df5abacked Yes35c150.39$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.111250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d72…9461backed Yes34c145.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505841.4%24 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes12c138.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2420027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes26c129.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.810434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes22c129.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4817831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes27c125$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes17c123.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.992,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes23c123.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.713836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+68.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes23c118$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6235232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No65c115.38$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8920958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No65c109.06$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.341,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes27c105.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3728742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes23c103.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.932722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes35c102$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked No78c101.66$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.669548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d7…6d74backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb139…29a1backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105046%23 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1229740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3f0…5cd7backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17628.1%5 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3177851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No73c97.7$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.074,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c94$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.29,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No65c89.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.61,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes15c89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.351,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes25c87.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.522,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No70c86.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0719662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes37c84.76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.368252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes23c84.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3229941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed Yes30c83.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2543515.2%66 W · 369 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No69c81.34$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…e42abacked Yes30c78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.42245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No69c76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.