Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc325ebb48aaadb81536644fe8a664c1b163d96996c85e5bb359747a681a1994a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 65c | 7,934$5,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,787.95 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Down | 67c | 4,288$2,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.41 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 15c | 3,510$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.57 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e42abacked Up | 30c | 2,275$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 1c | 1,982$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 4c | 1,889$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 12c | 1,670$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.88 | 310 | 34.8%108 W · 202 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 30c | 1,590$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 308 | 39%120 W · 188 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Up | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Up | 42c | 1,200$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Up | 33c | 1,116$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 67c | 919.89$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.56 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…07bebacked Up | 1c | 900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Up | 28c | 843.3$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Up | 34c | 840.26$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.59 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…789fbacked Up | 3c | 807.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5468backed Up | 29c | 755$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Up | 35c | 741$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Down | 79c | 500$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Down | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0e…f1d0backed Up | 34c | 449.01$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Up | 6c | 439.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Up | 30c | 425$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…43ddbacked Up | 33c | 366.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Down | 62c | 364.61$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…83a5backed Up | 32c | 322.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Down | 63c | 305$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Up | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Down | 59c | 299.81$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…b362backed Up | 30c | 275.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Up | 6c | 261.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…9539backed Up | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Up | 36c | 225$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcf…950ebacked Up | 5c | 214.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cd…55f6backed Up | 28c | 207.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Up | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Up | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a6…a1e0backed Up | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9f…894fbacked Down | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Up | 37c | 198.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…4956backed Up | 22c | 115.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Up | 37c | 107.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 42c | 103$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Up | 29c | 101.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Up | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef85…51edbacked Up | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…da82backed Down | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…00a5backed Down | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…fc33backed Down | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…74f5backed Down | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Up | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c58…d13bbacked Down | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ad…3fc8backed Down | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3a…73bdbacked Down | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaaf…80b3backed Down | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e85…e183backed Down | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619e…003abacked Down | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f34…a673backed Up | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e99…994ebacked Up | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae86…6e6abacked Down | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…fa58backed Up | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…b61ebacked Up | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…c69bbacked Up | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 71c | 70.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa4…e47dbacked Up | 23c | 67.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…cebfbacked Up | 32c | 56.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Up | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 74c | 51.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…6d06backed Up | 26c | 49.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 28c | 45.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed Down | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…9ffcbacked Up | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6abd…3297backed Down | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed Down | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…50acbacked Down | 71c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…27b4backed Down | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.