TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf1a6…a1e0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT4148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$630
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$458.64
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$179.28
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$310
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$199.8
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$610
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,170Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,170
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$275.63
76ers vs. Spursbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Pacers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+26.6%+$105.09
Mavericks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+31.6%+$96
Pistons vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$366
Rockets vs. Hornetsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$960Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+56.3%+$540
Hawks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$550
Pacers vs. Wizardsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$885Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$884.98
Cavaliers vs. Nuggetsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+100%+$1,000
Kings vs. Pelicansbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$248
Bulls vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+156.4%+$244
Jazz vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$750
Bucks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+28.2%+$88
76ers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+72.4%+$420
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+185.7%+$975
Lakers vs. Netsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+31.6%+$120
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+53.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$836.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.81
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+150%+$307.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$582Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+29.9%+$173.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Raiders vs. Eaglesbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$104
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.86
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.