TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. 76ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Hawks, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,323,107
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,506,841

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,323,107 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,348 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Hawks50c303,401$150,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152,712.5587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed 76ers51c125,000$63,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,499.9723257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed 76ers53c100,000$53,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,038.5851350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dbf…53bebacked Hawks49c100,000$49,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,0001637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a47…0c54backed 76ers53c99,741$52,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,374.581833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-36.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Hawks48c88,258$42,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,054.2460351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Hawks80c87,161$69,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,541.9596447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed 76ers51c67,500$34,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,264.971,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff36…e757backed Hawks39c60,000$23,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,529.1211547%54 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed 76ers50c60,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,00043148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked 76ers60c54,979$32,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,961.0277348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Hawks41c50,943$20,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,300.7351844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked 76ers59c50,000$29,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,499.871,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hawks48c45,977$21,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,017.491,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked 76ers52c42,310$22,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,001.214358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked 76ers50c40,741$20,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,472.521,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks48c34,934$16,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,253.364,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked 76ers50c34,782$17,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,39117356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Hawks49c32,443$15,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,573.261,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Hawks36c29,821$10,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,078.9858740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed 76ers53c25,416$13,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,421.8951354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked 76ers0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Hawks48c24,687$11,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,783.542,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed 76ers51c23,224$11,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,756.651643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed 76ers39c22,500$8,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,769.75139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers50c22,500$11,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,174.992,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85ce…d5f9backed 76ers53c22,177$11,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,753.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7479…d35fbacked 76ers52c20,150$10,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,4783863.2%24 W · 14 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+32.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Hawks47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,6007941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Hawks49c20,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2005156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed 76ers53c20,000$10,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,60019653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f8bcbacked 76ers50c19,701$9,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,850.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers33c17,867$5,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,887.168,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hawks66c17,738$11,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,019.615,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Hawks43c17,658$7,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,036.9128742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked 76ers52c17,000$8,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,8409054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c9…cd97backed Hawks48c16,374$7,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,514.358640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed 76ers54c15,385$8,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,308.0814856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Hawks48c15,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,80019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Hawks47c15,000$7,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,949.9845850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed 76ers7c14,876$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.0183039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x899a…2a22backed Hawks50c12,879$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,379.0517241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Hawks63c12,665$7,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,675.1228554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Hawks49c12,033$5,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,136.8320551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb42…d373backed 76ers52c12,000$6,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,239.992147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed 76ers1c10,702$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0964517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x866c…a6ccbacked Hawks38c10,658$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,607.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked 76ers50c10,616$5,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,299.338251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Hawks47c10,575$4,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,604.7359646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed 76ers50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Hawks47c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,299.996546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed 76ers52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.9321951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks62c9,784$6,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,726.813,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed 76ers49c9,016$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40052760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Hawks72c9,000$6,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,54542640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Hawks60c8,986$5,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,586.7348956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12f1…8e70backed 76ers51c8,812$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5004725.5%12 W · 35 L-12.4wins-0.26per pick52cpaid-52.6%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Hawks41c8,683$3,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,141.751,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed 76ers64c8,660$5,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,542.41,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 76ers21c8,570$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.993,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed 76ers12c8,410$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.271,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed 76ers64c8,391$5,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,37029347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed 76ers50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0003745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Hawks48c8,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,16032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Hawks68c7,930$5,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,537.776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed 76ers22c7,722$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6931,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Hawks78c7,140$5,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.426459.4%38 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Hawks50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed 76ers52c7,000$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,64029748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Hawks50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked 76ers22c6,979$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.6980737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Hawks48c6,250$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2501,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba62…b19bbacked 76ers52c6,154$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2001741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87de…75dbbacked Hawks49c6,122$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.451145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked 76ers52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12013954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7016…c6e8backed Hawks47c6,000$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,179.97887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick59cpaid+41.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd606…9e01backed 76ers51c5,642$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed 76ers1c5,536$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.681,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed 76ers56c5,500$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06029250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4710…a7c8backed 76ers62c5,376$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,332.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7565…8fd8backed 76ers41c5,302$2,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,190.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hawks48c5,300$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.023,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2e72…d31ebacked 76ers62c5,282$3,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,27520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a0…fd04backed 76ers63c5,215$3,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,265.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd933…6224backed Hawks38c5,200$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Hawks48c5,149$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,685.641832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed 76ers0c5,105$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.618820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Hawks49c5,102$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.0476746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed 76ers0c5,027$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.055213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Hawks69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,55012251.6%63 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked 76ers52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3424…7ab4backed 76ers53c4,831$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,560.17911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick36cpaid-74.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x301b…c900backed Hawks38c4,800$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,997.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+166.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed 76ers2c4,750$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8542348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8082…4d66backed 76ers40c4,626$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x101c…7df8backed Hawks44c4,390$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,456.438644.2%38 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks51c4,314$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.731,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Hawks48c4,169$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.9855346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…99c0backed Hawks48c4,125$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x967f…bcd0backed Hawks44c4,069$1,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,278.641662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.