NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13c83d7cf1ef2f216fed4520d24a80e1e2df8294da38d01b0c6089534bd93742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 56c | 15,546$8,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,672.16 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 10,972$4,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,082.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 7,363$3,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,313.14 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 55c | 5,483$3,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,467.15 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 2,134$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.44 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…07adbacked Under | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 44c | 809.61$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.19 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 47c | 588$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.64 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 513.57$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.92 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 492.96$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.06 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 44c | 406.43$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.6 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 233.82$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Under | 53c | 225.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.22 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 25c | 171.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…fb21backed Over | 47c | 165.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 43c | 111.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 110.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Under | 51c | 105.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…6736backed Over | 51c | 97.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 52c | 76.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 49c | 67.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed Over | 51c | 66.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Under | 42c | 64.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 42c | 62.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 37c | 53.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 47c | 47.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 199 | 50.8%101 W · 98 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 44.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…ccefbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 59c | 40.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…e14ebacked Under | 47c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 49c | 30.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Over | 55c | 26.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 52c | 22.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…790bbacked Over | 58c | 21.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 236.5this page
- Hawks vs. 76ersHawks won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: 76ers (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: 76ers (-2.5)Hawks won
- Spread: 76ers (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: 76ers (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: 76ers (-5.5)Hawks won
- VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.