NBA · resolved market
Spread: 76ers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca64d80ce6c83b25184c86828db89a32464ce2db47ae20abe5fd328bdc5ce1b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof 76ers, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Hawks | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 331 | 46.2%153 W · 178 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed 76ers | 46c | 917.23$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.76 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed 76ers | 1c | 873.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 55c | 814.34$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.41 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed 76ers | 44c | 711.77$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.04 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 76ers | 46c | 707.02$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.2 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 76ers | 39c | 570.84$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 52c | 500.43$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1c…9b07backed 76ers | 50c | 391$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Hawks | 63c | 192.69$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed 76ers | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…7df8backed Hawks | 55c | 147$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ecf5backed Hawks | 60c | 145$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Hawks | 54c | 134.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked 76ers | 50c | 111.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Hawks | 62c | 95.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Hawks | 61c | 81.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Hawks | 63c | 79.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed 76ers | 37c | 70.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…a6ebbacked Hawks | 51c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed 76ers | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 76ers | 38c | 64.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed 76ers | 46c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed 76ers | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked 76ers | 39c | 41.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Hawks | 80c | 39.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed 76ers | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed 76ers | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hawks | 52c | 26.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a8…8a9dbacked Hawks | 57c | 21.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee70…7e8abacked Hawks | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 76ers (-4.5)this page
- Hawks vs. 76ersHawks won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Hawks vs. 76ers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: 76ers (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: 76ers (-2.5)Hawks won
- Spread: 76ers (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: 76ers (-5.5)Hawks won
- VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.