TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,061,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,540,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,061,416 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,038 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b67…1b07backed No1c2,322,865$11,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,963.5490%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7072…3413backed No0c1,800,000$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,80030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e71…ba82backed No0c1,626,691$7,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,664.871010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-85.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234e…65d2backed No1c1,553,953$14,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,231.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked No1c854,256$6,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,415.241526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-36.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02e1…5baebacked No0c583,000$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e27…8fa8backed No0c458,620$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.8660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf28…7f92backed No1c400,099$3,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No2c371,310$5,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,720.76850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…cc13backed No0c333,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495e…9a96backed No0c310,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb1…fb84backed No1c303,656$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.63520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…3312backed No0c300,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No1c298,562$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,085.16303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-95.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No0c295,475$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.22303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a21…fb6cbacked No1c251,665$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.77100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78e7…2c77backed No0c238,950$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc22…a078backed No0c234,746$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92ae…0376backed No1c216,695$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.1770%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked No1c210,588$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.970%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf087…962dbacked No1c209,321$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf920…665fbacked No1c200,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc4…5fa6backed No1c200,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7168…e537backed No1c189,129$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ce…5eb3backed No1c177,987$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked No2c165,508$3,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,507.29190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No3c162,634$4,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,585.2110420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce9…ad7fbacked No1c154,216$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x375d…983ebacked No0c150,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c05…9e9fbacked No1c144,000$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf1…3f2cbacked No1c131,400$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.25100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf08…4f4bbacked No1c124,290$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No1c122,652$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.268924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd5…f114backed No1c119,993$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked No1c113,306$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.342218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3371…4f89backed No0c113,050$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…9900backed No0c111,073$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bdb…4496backed No1c110,911$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.270%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58ac…27ddbacked No1c109,027$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.1640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No1c100,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55c5…1710backed No1c100,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No3c95,732$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,473.8850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa645…0be6backed No1c91,654$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51e1…5ec9backed No2c89,867$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,229.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No3c87,494$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,273.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437b…6e7dbacked No1c86,804$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e3…e818backed No0c86,126$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.0830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ccf…79fbbacked Yes47c85,895$40,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,524.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No2c82,593$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.444511.1%5 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked No2c81,482$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.41020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-67.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12df…6a3dbacked No1c80,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6360…1699backed No0c78,693$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ae…7412backed No1c74,332$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.9970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe033…40a5backed Yes45c73,849$33,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,625.521618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc18b…9491backed No1c71,429$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ea…5d08backed No0c70,210$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf09…4806backed No1c67,394$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ea3…9a76backed No2c66,059$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddae…52c4backed No1c63,096$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.5730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc828…dbfabacked No1c62,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x484f…cee3backed No1c60,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bf8…fb62backed No2c59,754$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.651811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-71.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d0c…673cbacked No1c58,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked No2c57,422$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d9…2851backed No2c55,000$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa3…4de8backed No0c52,667$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15860%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe4d4…4fbebacked No1c52,567$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa18b…563ebacked No0c51,863$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0780…b0e9backed No1c51,708$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.5850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc26…7e7dbacked No1c50,100$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.3812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-82.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9200…83b5backed No0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba8…b0cbbacked No1c49,873$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.4490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28d2…38aebacked No7c48,143$3,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,37030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked No2c47,884$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.511915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-72%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked No2c47,044$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.32160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed No3c46,045$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b0…5aaabacked No0c44,145$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb206…cac9backed No1c43,796$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ac…93ecbacked No0c43,270$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No3c42,703$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.35825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-64.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55f6…8fbebacked No1c42,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x049b…5a12backed No1c40,057$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x966b…76acbacked No0c39,835$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef01…ff4cbacked No0c38,723$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x701d…7617backed No0c38,722$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3f…c42bbacked No1c37,870$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bb…38e9backed No0c37,630$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c3c…c646backed No0c37,490$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe788…736bbacked No1c36,774$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.96120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2958…d5fabacked No2c36,728$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc88e…f3e1backed No2c34,999$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.981323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1be…9662backed No1c34,941$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.7670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f1e…ccb0backed No3c34,929$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.7760%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78f…9cffbacked No1c34,617$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x418d…d34abacked No53c34,600$18,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,33810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed No1c34,268$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.19140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38ba…26bdbacked No0c33,770$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a5…eb4abacked No0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9768…1b82backed No1c32,000$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d34…0772backed No0c31,950$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.