TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,740,489
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,486,565

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,740,489 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c1,586,083$3,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,086.081526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-36.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed Yes0c1,474,664$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.46190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cf5…7f12backed Yes0c1,397,144$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.14119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-87.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c1,379,066$3,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,290.81210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c1,291,022$3,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,873.07160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c1,120,271$2,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.82280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e83…e4bcbacked Yes0c940,070$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc18b…9491backed Yes0c850,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb354…e124backed Yes0c639,207$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.2140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c586,378$3,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,696.37205%1 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-91.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc4…5fa6backed Yes0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes0c499,997$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed5…776bbacked Yes0c454,420$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes0c370,219$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.66234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-94.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c345,793$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.58303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-95.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cf…3690backed Yes0c333,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…eb16backed Yes0c260,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a68…9209backed Yes0c250,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0b…5f9dbacked Yes0c250,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x396c…4498backed Yes0c249,234$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47cc…2fffbacked Yes0c241,877$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c187,500$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e27…8fa8backed Yes0c156,990$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes0c155,009$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.6880%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ac…27ddbacked Yes0c134,333$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e7…0eabbacked Yes1c104,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19c…2467backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba8…b0cbbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa173…6b1fbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa064…d164backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes1c89,500$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.17120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad42…fe63backed Yes1c79,699$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.34911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-82.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes1c79,360$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.41160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a6…3dd1backed Yes0c66,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes0c61,911$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.9840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c60,017$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c58,207$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.684511.1%5 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes1c55,684$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.03160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31a…8fbcbacked Yes0c53,333$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f2…77bbbacked Yes0c52,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1213…ff57backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9488…d531backed Yes1c48,168$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.632412.5%3 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d9…06a3backed Yes0c45,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4580%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x119c…2d4abacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes1c38,878$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.7190%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes1c36,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd6…24f8backed Yes0c36,316$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3208…57a1backed Yes0c35,263$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ad0…19e3backed Yes0c34,767$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x221b…ea52backed Yes0c34,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ef…410bbacked Yes1c27,035$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228200%0 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f20…5d9bbacked Yes0c27,020$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.06110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1110…0d48backed Yes0c26,800$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf594…997ebacked Yes0c26,175$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019a…92e9backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7699…70b9backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa165…aab5backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe788…736bbacked Yes0c25,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a15…97cbbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7bcb…62ecbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ecf…1f5cbacked Yes0c23,900$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad65…7708backed Yes1c23,293$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…81d2backed Yes1c22,000$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11870%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ae…7412backed Yes0c21,666$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fab…d73cbacked Yes0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd69…0986backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b1a…3852backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa43…0ccabacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c54…747cbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9768…1b82backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da0…2338backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe072…f446backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad3…e666backed Yes1c19,643$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0c5…913cbacked Yes0c17,083$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes0c16,807$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.14110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3f3…b450backed Yes0c16,500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes0c15,847$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.181010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-86%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd5…f114backed Yes0c15,333$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes1c15,144$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.24110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95a4…b43dbacked Yes0c15,127$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x131d…c308backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes0c14,561$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.67180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15a…baa9backed Yes0c14,280$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb61…6032backed Yes0c13,750$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d5…ec29backed Yes0c13,333$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e0…bb97backed Yes0c13,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e4…af8cbacked Yes0c13,140$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b9…396abacked Yes0c12,438$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5eb…b9d6backed Yes1c12,143$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes1c12,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84dc…92cbbacked Yes0c11,800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes0c11,355$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a0e…c929backed Yes0c11,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02c5…ef2abacked Yes0c10,310$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bd6…d707backed Yes0c10,150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.