TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,866,883
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,207,324

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,866,883 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 627 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c3,698,787$9,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,597.88210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b2…c3f8backed Yes0c3,141,757$12,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,223.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c2,989,774$5,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,489.7303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-95.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes0c2,365,320$2,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,737.28345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b0…e71ebacked Yes0c1,170,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e27…8fa8backed Yes0c1,155,853$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.2860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes1c1,153,843$7,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,866.42160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed5…776bbacked Yes0c1,091,569$4,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,723.330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b67…1b07backed Yes0c780,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78090%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…3a13backed Yes0c726,930$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c725,537$3,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,404.9210420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes0c555,555$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.9990%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3527…150fbacked Yes1c553,941$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,160.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes0c500,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec44…c92bbacked Yes0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x029d…1d43backed Yes0c446,928$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.3840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55c5…1710backed Yes0c444,070$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.0790%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…eb16backed Yes0c419,999$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c363,369$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.85160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bdb…4496backed Yes0c349,904$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc18b…9491backed Yes0c333,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf85d…5331backed Yes0c307,607$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.5830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8193…3581backed Yes0c242,130$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.35140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x674d…af3ebacked Yes0c235,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f33…56a3backed Yes1c216,133$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c207,614$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.864511.1%5 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee3…cbb1backed Yes0c205,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes0c200,884$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.53180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…486abacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca6…7179backed Yes0c169,605$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e1…aca6backed Yes0c157,720$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes1c145,066$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.428924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ff…c8f6backed Yes1c138,132$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes1c131,370$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.854820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c127,748$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.39190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1958…310bbacked Yes1c121,179$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.79248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81d2…e13ebacked Yes1c112,528$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.7490%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes1c107,922$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.614415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c100,165$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.96320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cf5…7f12backed Yes1c100,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-87.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0738…1c04backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes2c99,556$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.83160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…02d6backed Yes0c91,500$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9c2…97a5backed Yes0c90,840$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d63…759abacked Yes0c89,143$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac0…7327backed Yes0c82,540$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.54540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ca…edb7backed Yes1c79,698$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.0540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0d…25b8backed Yes1c79,428$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9488…d531backed Yes1c78,165$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.322412.5%3 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8004…35e6backed Yes1c73,416$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52e…6104backed Yes1c73,061$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.4110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes0c69,999$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…204dbacked Yes1c60,718$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.5990%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ae…7412backed Yes0c60,295$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9369…6de9backed Yes1c55,000$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f7…69c3backed Yes0c54,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes1c53,827$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.47922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-52.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1f…86c9backed Yes0c52,787$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d9…06a3backed Yes0c52,344$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7980%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433e…86fcbacked Yes0c51,111$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2056…4078backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e5…dcc8backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b52…a30dbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a64…3c57backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes0c49,999$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1110…0d48backed Yes0c49,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef66…6de5backed Yes0c47,752$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Yes2c47,358$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac1…1828backed Yes1c46,696$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.5730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a15…97cbbacked Yes1c46,667$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47e6…fd61backed Yes1c46,161$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c22…0960backed Yes0c43,977$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.96130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4090…ce9bbacked Yes1c43,757$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ec…c1b4backed Yes1c42,492$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9793…789cbacked Yes0c42,136$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.74100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x647f…e7efbacked Yes1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8812…23bfbacked Yes1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a3c…0283backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad42…fe63backed Yes1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-82.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19c…2467backed Yes0c39,575$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1590%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6100…0b49backed Yes1c37,944$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.7290%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x97fe…f330backed Yes0c36,100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08f5…59a0backed Yes1c35,628$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.7780%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a83…a9a0backed Yes1c33,735$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-78.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c32,600$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.7270%0 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes1c32,510$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.8380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…ddb7backed Yes1c31,955$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558e…2ee7backed Yes1c30,722$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes0c30,675$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c30,025$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.78130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd69…0986backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1905…d06cbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e3…e818backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa388…d84ebacked Yes1c30,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa173…6b1fbacked Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked Yes1c28,985$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-77.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6cf…a305backed Yes1c27,005$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0770%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.