TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,934,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,871,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,934,916 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,370 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e71…ba82backed Yes0c2,448,371$4,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,896.741010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-85.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee3…cbb1backed Yes0c1,750,690$4,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,414.7180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c1,466,733$7,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,266.86303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-95.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed5…776bbacked Yes0c1,194,169$4,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,132.2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c917,033$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,529.77210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes1c747,570$9,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,837.01160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes1c549,051$5,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,407.4980%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes0c501,499$2,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,384.068924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes0c400,000$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.7990%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c379,705$4,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,970.13190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b0…e71ebacked Yes0c355,320$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68fe…8792backed Yes13c300,288$39,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,558.5950%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee9d…6ea1backed Yes0c266,875$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c257,059$3,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,461.684511.1%5 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccc5…f8a5backed Yes1c256,220$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes0c242,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-72.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6cf…a305backed Yes1c237,516$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.5470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf45…ec7dbacked Yes4c220,000$8,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,414.8660%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bdb…4496backed Yes0c217,606$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x674d…af3ebacked Yes0c210,498$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.3540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes1c208,977$2,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.59180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec44…c92bbacked Yes1c200,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…0c64backed Yes0c198,828$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.7930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…486abacked Yes0c198,716$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.1570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9793…789cbacked Yes1c190,123$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.56100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes0c185,320$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.96100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b2…c3f8backed Yes2c165,051$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa998…1b64backed Yes0c156,697$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca6…7179backed Yes0c156,430$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.2930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e6…fd61backed Yes2c147,613$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,231.83147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes0c142,351$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.2345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234e…65d2backed Yes1c135,288$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.5830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55c5…1710backed Yes0c127,061$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7699…70b9backed Yes0c125,107$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.3250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e27…8fa8backed Yes0c124,850$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.5560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e3…e818backed Yes0c112,690$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.0730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52e…6104backed Yes1c103,521$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.75110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ae…7412backed Yes0c102,865$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.2370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079f…64e7backed Yes0c102,160$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c101,000$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8193…3581backed Yes2c100,465$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.95140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cf5…7f12backed Yes1c100,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.2119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-87.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1714…cbb8backed Yes0c97,417$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9087…9532backed Yes1c95,925$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.3240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ff…c8f6backed Yes2c90,314$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe033…40a5backed Yes2c89,989$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.841618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes2c89,630$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.76119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9369…6de9backed Yes2c89,016$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08f5…59a0backed Yes1c87,984$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.8780%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes1c85,000$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.12303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8706…f8ccbacked Yes0c83,333$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d9…06a3backed Yes1c76,759$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.4180%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf166…af38backed Yes1c75,983$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.7230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffaf…64c6backed Yes0c75,457$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes1c75,000$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fef…4849backed Yes0c71,410$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.9330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes0c68,067$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.693312.1%4 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-75.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes3c67,324$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.764415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc9…ec4bbacked Yes1c67,129$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6314…0183backed Yes0c66,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf01…6865backed Yes0c66,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x647f…e7efbacked Yes2c65,447$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.4350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x096f…f082backed Yes3c63,430$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7e…396bbacked Yes3c63,205$2,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.06425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes3c62,707$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.66837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c61,220$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.49392.6%1 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-93.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a1d…014abacked Yes1c60,400$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f76…fb8abacked Yes1c60,001$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.7130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda37…fa9ebacked Yes1c59,692$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a68…9209backed Yes3c58,773$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes1c57,779$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.984820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes2c57,037$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.241020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-67.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes1c54,170$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.16100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1958…310bbacked Yes2c51,850$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.03248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e29…740fbacked Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ac…27ddbacked Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b52…a30dbacked Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf85d…5331backed Yes0c49,999$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0d…25b8backed Yes1c47,646$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…745cbacked Yes1c47,189$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06b…a61bbacked Yes0c47,085$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ab4…02d6backed Yes0c42,865$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd69…0986backed Yes0c42,817$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.45100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfde…8267backed Yes2c42,787$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.9360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d63…759abacked Yes1c42,000$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019a…92e9backed Yes0c41,333$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes2c40,000$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0780…b0e9backed Yes1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd93d…0095backed Yes0c39,863$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8473…c2b0backed Yes0c39,833$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x029d…1d43backed Yes0c38,554$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0a0…2760backed Yes7c36,247$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdda7…7223backed Yes1c35,603$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f5e…13c6backed Yes1c35,416$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ab…3206backed Yes9c35,338$3,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,025.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd847…ae3abacked Yes0c35,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d90…c448backed Yes0c34,167$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes1c33,359$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.49714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid-55.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.