TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,037,182
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,805,916

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,037,182 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 769 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x371a…cc13backed Yes0c2,460,648$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.0240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c1,718,061$5,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,301.91210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes0c1,560,280$3,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,540.37130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x714a…ab2fbacked Yes0c1,250,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c1,207,109$4,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,398.93303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-95.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b67…1b07backed Yes0c1,180,811$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.8190%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf44…71a4backed Yes0c1,116,246$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccc4…5fa6backed Yes0c999,999$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes1c699,084$3,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,654.111526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-36.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes1c534,331$7,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,227.73160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes0c530,788$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.77100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cf…3690backed Yes0c493,379$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,131.1740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb354…e124backed Yes0c400,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…eb16backed Yes0c400,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7699…70b9backed Yes0c304,860$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.8650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c268,333$1,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,603.354511.1%5 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c242,810$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,153.93190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd59f…82f7backed Yes0c242,466$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe639…082abacked Yes0c240,793$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.73922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc8…b0b3backed Yes0c240,485$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x049b…5a12backed Yes0c232,180$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.3660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe033…40a5backed Yes3c230,397$6,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,948.251618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes0c223,399$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.084415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55c5…1710backed Yes0c211,590$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.1890%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5eb…b9d6backed Yes2c205,879$3,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,385.1460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a0f…a001backed Yes0c196,645$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ac…27ddbacked Yes0c191,169$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Yes0c175,336$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…81d2backed Yes1c174,767$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,611.7370%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c165,524$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.6770%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b4…9846backed Yes0c141,120$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a6…3dd1backed Yes0c138,333$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4330…fae6backed Yes0c133,758$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddae…52c4backed Yes1c127,184$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.0130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes3c124,262$4,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,170.41120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…0b7abacked Yes0c124,000$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b9…0024backed Yes1c105,976$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.8180%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf5…7f12backed Yes0c100,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-87.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed85…f876backed Yes0c100,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c3c…c646backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c64…ac0bbacked Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8812…23bfbacked Yes1c100,000$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ae…7412backed Yes0c99,423$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.0670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0b…5f9dbacked Yes1c97,916$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2a…4d9abacked Yes0c93,470$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes0c93,382$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558e…2ee7backed Yes1c93,128$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.0340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b02…4991backed Yes2c92,014$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad42…fe63backed Yes2c91,062$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.63911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-82.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d9…06a3backed Yes0c88,394$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.9480%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf85d…5331backed Yes0c85,757$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e3…dbbfbacked Yes1c84,000$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef46…b0eabacked Yes0c80,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa450…a81abacked Yes0c72,886$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9087…9532backed Yes0c69,643$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d7…17e1backed Yes0c65,790$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9311…dd25backed Yes1c64,762$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.4330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fab…d73cbacked Yes0c58,505$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x940f…158dbacked Yes0c57,245$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019a…92e9backed Yes1c56,609$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.0750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c55,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes1c54,800$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa547…5ad3backed Yes0c54,395$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6314…0183backed Yes0c54,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…0b49backed Yes1c53,531$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.9890%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d2…5cccbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e29…740fbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c1…5479backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee3…cbb1backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180b…4725backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee3…150cbacked Yes1c49,871$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebd4…946ebacked Yes0c49,174$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf817…516dbacked Yes0c46,835$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc7…b358backed Yes0c46,135$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9488…d531backed Yes3c45,156$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.22412.5%3 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Yes1c44,003$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.02520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+111%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8473…c2b0backed Yes0c44,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb8…f205backed Yes0c44,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7555…ecc5backed Yes1c42,000$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes3c41,982$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.3790%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes3c41,676$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.67160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98df…59f1backed Yes0c40,222$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9842…132bbacked Yes1c40,039$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-90.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ed…504ebacked Yes0c40,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36af…fa87backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes0c39,601$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f2…77bbbacked Yes1c38,160$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes0c38,000$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114258%2 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-89.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4de0…0f0fbacked Yes0c36,104$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x221b…ea52backed Yes1c36,097$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.4930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c35,633$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772392.6%1 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-93.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b1a…3852backed Yes0c35,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes0c34,842$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.58714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid-55.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1213…ff57backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd50…6500backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.