NBA · resolved market
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x814b6df2eb37083606cc0f6e10885eb19631e608e28df3c7d629e43e5e6580a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4900…4a72backed Yes | 71c | 9,376$6,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,639.98 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -12.5wins | -0.21per pick | 62cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Yes | 54c | 8,254$4,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,442.07 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…9504backed No | 46c | 5,502$2,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,971.02 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 37c | 3,265$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.35 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…0cd4backed No | 45c | 3,116$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.49 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…169ebacked No | 59c | 2,799$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.95 | 274 | 24.5%67 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…ccb6backed Yes | 65c | 2,651$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 29c | 2,282$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.87 | 171 | 62.6%107 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Yes | 54c | 2,150$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 55c | 2,092$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.95 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…7ddcbacked No | 36c | 1,652$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…8016backed No | 46c | 1,537$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.79 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,199$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.82 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Yes | 10c | 556.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked No | 33c | 533.78$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.25 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes | 53c | 506.28$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.33 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a6…a1e0backed Yes | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…db24backed Yes | 54c | 491.7$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 76c | 491$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 31c | 485.89$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.95 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…bff1backed No | 22c | 440$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 64c | 400$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed No | 34c | 292.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.1 | 164 | 44.5%73 W · 91 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…99b8backed No | 44c | 275$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 28c | 274.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.98 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked No | 43c | 261.53$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da6…9ac4backed Yes | 59c | 236$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 25c | 232$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…5728backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…edbdbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…06e5backed Yes | 59c | 170.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…e617backed Yes | 58c | 170$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked No | 45c | 153.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…79dabacked Yes | 66c | 150.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…aaddbacked Yes | 52c | 147.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12b…2465backed Yes | 73c | 137.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 47c | 105.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 46c | 104.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 34c | 102.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed No | 50c | 100.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked No | 79c | 92.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6b…dd2bbacked No | 75c | 84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed Yes | 60c | 83.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16a…cd77backed Yes | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc70a…bb6fbacked Yes | 67c | 81.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7d…0a9ebacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 28c | 68.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 40c | 68.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 27c | 60.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…e350backed No | 36c | 55.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…5b14backed Yes | 53c | 50.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…5123backed Yes | 64c | 43.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 43.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Yes | 71c | 42.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 51c | 41.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 43c | 35.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…7718backed Yes | 65c | 35.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c6…f2bebacked Yes | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…05e1backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd633…8e29backed Yes | 58c | 26.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3664…b1a0backed Yes | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…38ecbacked Yes | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8f…f631backed No | 65c | 21.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…1f77backed Yes | 65c | 18.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.