NBA · resolved market
Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8238818182fb554925ee124da6760ce8ab2ae59fbf54a2fc20a56d7bf3585bde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Yes | 17c | 3,069$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.91 | 171 | 62.6%107 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x921d…efb8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…8016backed No | 80c | 665$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.78 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…db24backed Yes | 20c | 650$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc334…0e88backed Yes | 33c | 613.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81be…a441backed Yes | 20c | 463$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 80c | 451$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 425.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed No | 68c | 399.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb688…6862backed Yes | 32c | 387.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…a226backed Yes | 26c | 306.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 68c | 272.61$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c1…54b0backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…748fbacked Yes | 11c | 196.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b4…c872backed Yes | 14c | 187.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…1efebacked Yes | 31c | 156.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…0ee1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe332…7855backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +421.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…62aebacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…9cfabacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked No | 71c | 42.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3664…b1a0backed Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked No | 71c | 25.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.