NBA · resolved market
Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabc8ec83699e6db8ef9ae584db50eb5632a17f8a39adccfb35e9ccc9156236da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 12c | 7,029$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.63 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…83cdbacked Yes | 9c | 4,988$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 79c | 2,118$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.44 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c1…54b0backed Yes | 20c | 1,644$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.8 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…9200backed Yes | 20c | 1,644$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 67c | 1,087$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.05 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 11c | 1,036$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.62 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 858$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 12c | 692.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…d068backed Yes | 25c | 603.01$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…0cd4backed Yes | 13c | 417.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…0425backed Yes | 36c | 290$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 286.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…c53dbacked Yes | 26c | 271.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3664…b1a0backed Yes | 20c | 256.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed Yes | 26c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 23c | 141.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12b…2465backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 124.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…73acbacked No | 64c | 116.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…0ee1backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 36c | 100.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…4c77backed No | 64c | 98.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…dde5backed Yes | 22c | 86.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +251.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 84.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…105dbacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed Yes | 22c | 69.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…a1aabacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked No | 72c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 70c | 25.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 72c | 22.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 387 | 51.2%198 W · 189 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…fa1cbacked No | 80c | 13.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.