NBA · resolved market
Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82508a2c8b731f850d2530700399967ea3e1f03ddbcd9a4877fbe08317350741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 26c | 10,261$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,704.24 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…9017backed Yes | 76c | 9,997$7,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.19 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…0cd4backed Yes | 45c | 3,464$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.27 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4900…4a72backed No | 72c | 1,981$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.96 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -12.5wins | -0.21per pick | 62cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 1,200$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.33 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Yes | 50c | 644$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Yes | 33c | 488.24$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.12 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 56c | 467.18$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.86 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…3b52backed No | 26c | 334$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Yes | 21c | 318.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.41 | 171 | 62.6%107 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…4836backed No | 26c | 273.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 229.91$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 18c | 200.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.56 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…d90cbacked Yes | 50c | 200.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4642…21d3backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +11.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…a226backed Yes | 44c | 183.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da6…9ac4backed No | 75c | 179.93$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked No | 58c | 150.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…8aa0backed No | 26c | 148$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 27c | 104.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 85.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…8016backed No | 67c | 72.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 41c | 68.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…62aebacked Yes | 51c | 49.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 73c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa08…1886backed Yes | 47c | 31.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed No | 53c | 29.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8715backed Yes | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 76c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…675cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…169ebacked No | 62c | 17.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 274 | 24.5%67 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.