NBA · resolved market
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe380f3fb3d99602acb5bbf402a22d888d06c73f1cdeab5c63ba72c249e1d6da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e10…0cd4backed No | 3c | 83,450$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.05 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 6c | 14,976$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.57 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 3c | 13,146$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.78 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 12,455$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 6c | 10,239$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.7 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c2…58e9backed No | 8c | 6,213$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 8c | 4,500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,529$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed No | 6c | 1,405$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…2515backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7af…1e9fbacked No | 5c | 207$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4251…a957backed No | 8c | 198$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1c…d8b5backed No | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…c920backed No | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.