TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdc02…f89c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
286
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT13947.5%66 W · 73 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 139 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$94
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$205
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+100.7%+$100.33
Spread: Spurs (-16.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+25%+$100
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+25%+$50
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$204
Spread: Spurs (-20.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50
Spread: Spurs (-15.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+25%+$100
Spread: Spurs (-15.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$90
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Spurs (-15.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+25%+$50
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+150%+$300
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Spread: Knicks (-12.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+25%+$100
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.02
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$111.29
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.01
Spread: Thunder (-12.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
Showing 25 of 139 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3729.7%11 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-46.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.59
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+166.7%+$375
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$258.27
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$342.48
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$319.99
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+116.2%+$116.22
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$291
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.97
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$115
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Croatia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.99
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.99
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Japan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT2934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+150%+$149.95
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+400%+$80
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$90
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+300%+$150
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.77
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$168
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.99
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.13
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$79
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+150%+$120
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$170
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$60.99
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.6
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$42
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.22
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$20.18
Will Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$21.2
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$115.99
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Manchester City FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)backed Manchester City FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+100%+$10
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+25%+$20
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+72.4%+$14.49
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Tottenham vs. Manchester United: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25%+$40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,114Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$286
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+47.1%+$48
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+68.5%+$122
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$122.6
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+340.2%+$391.24
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+95.3%+$48.8
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,756Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+34.5%+$605.98
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.4%+$188.24
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$92
Will four or more people dissent the December Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+25.8%+$41
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$53
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+31.3%+$72.04
All 17 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$10.1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$174
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+99.5%+$249.32
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.41
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$692Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$692
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$635Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$635
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+300%+$75
Trump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+66.7%+$20
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+100%+$50
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+60.7%+$85
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+92.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+42.9%+$9
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)backed Valencia CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+66.7%+$13.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$541Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$541.46
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.