Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4deff5fedabb90e3fc589eda979c577023baeffdafd4b5fc0c535ccbb2be8326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $323,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $338,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 49c | 12,617$6,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,471.77 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31f8…2423backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 22c | 9,891$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.14 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 78c | 9,478$7,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,370.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 78c | 9,309$7,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,257.18 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 79c | 8,988$7,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,103.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked Yes | 5c | 6,000$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 5,591$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.41 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 0c | 5,555$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 56c | 5,375$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f63abacked Yes | 64c | 5,331$3,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,398.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…24e0backed No | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,633$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 1c | 4,312$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,247.82 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 58c | 4,280$2,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed Yes | 73c | 3,563$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…ade2backed Yes | 6c | 3,041$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,996$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 2,868$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510.76 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1c…3e50backed No | 37c | 2,622$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…2e45backed No | 35c | 2,510$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 41c | 2,088$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -71%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…1d22backed Yes | 7c | 2,027$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 67c | 2,001$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.27 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Yes | 75c | 1,987$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 38c | 1,967$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 1,864$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 54c | 1,556$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.02 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,526$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 7c | 1,520$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,469$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 32c | 1,368$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.86 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…206abacked Yes | 77c | 1,293$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 9c | 1,150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246a…b318backed Yes | 6c | 1,106$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…9e23backed No | 31c | 1,100$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 49c | 1,070$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.55 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 11c | 1,022$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.46 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 58c | 1,020$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.02 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 67c | 1,000$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…2945backed Yes | 72c | 959.71$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…d9f3backed Yes | 12c | 853.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 66c | 840.49$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.72 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 831.68$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.52 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 78c | 829.9$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 67c | 792.58$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 45c | 750.86$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.27 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 7c | 739.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbd…3d51backed Yes | 68c | 737.62$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 64c | 732.73$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb15b…5215backed No | 77c | 714.59$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 61c | 711.24$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.14 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…160abacked Yes | 5c | 699.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…6086backed Yes | 4c | 656.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…5d40backed Yes | 4c | 642.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes | 16c | 637$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 16c | 628$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 17c | 618.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 23c | 614.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 58c | 605$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.89 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…398ebacked Yes | 22c | 599.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 61c | 580.98$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 67c | 574.72$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.48 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…3309backed Yes | 5c | 538.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 22c | 525$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed Yes | 22c | 525$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa1…3c07backed No | 16c | 523.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 36c | 499.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 41c | 499.9$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.88 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 46c | 483.06$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 53c | 482.4$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 79c | 473.74$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…a456backed No | 39c | 455.87$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…112bbacked Yes | 72c | 451.27$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 15c | 440.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 50c | 440.13$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 3c | 432.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 36c | 432$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 35c | 430.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…1d9fbacked Yes | 5c | 405.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 57c | 403.57$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 33c | 400$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fef…0cc5backed No | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…05bfbacked Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 36c | 399.91$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.67 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 53c | 391.45$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.55 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 42c | 386.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.67 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…f101backed Yes | 5c | 377.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e97…16debacked Yes | 5c | 375.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 53c | 367.88$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.66 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 42c | 367.75$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.98 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 358.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.63 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 24c | 335.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 67c | 329.76$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 15c | 328.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.16 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Yes | 8c | 321.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf77a…d0c7backed No | 54c | 317.3$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 27, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 8, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.