Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc624c1a09abf480ab5de0dc250762cf816b3d9d19b6b9e5bf9cd34e51c26c485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 11,329$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 5c | 10,624$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 2c | 10,368$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 19c | 4,922$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.64 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…05bfbacked Yes | 9c | 3,000$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa1…3c07backed Yes | 3c | 2,201$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…175fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,053$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 78c | 1,773$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…6f6cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,358$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 5c | 1,262$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 8c | 1,101$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes | 11c | 1,087$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 2c | 1,086$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x053f…2c01backed Yes | 11c | 975.53$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Yes | 4c | 653.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 495.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 7c | 457.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbd…3d51backed No | 76c | 397.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 385.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 79c | 345.4$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed Yes | 10c | 344$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 271.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 13c | 206.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 79c | 200.04$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 188.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 10c | 184.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 10c | 173.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 9c | 169.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed No | 80c | 117$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked No | 79c | 113.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 79c | 86.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…8397backed Yes | 30c | 67.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 65.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 39.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f061backed No | 75c | 33.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…c78fbacked No | 75c | 29.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 29, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 27, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 8, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.