TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,307

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,957 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea10…b758backed Yes7c4,600$322 inLost-$321.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6762…fe89backed Yes9c783.95$72 inLost-$72.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c623.35$12 inLost-$12.073187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd019…681fbacked Yes3c592.68$20 inLost-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes3c508.22$15 inLost-$15.17150%0 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost-$25650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes5c499.96$25 inLost-$25450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+1,205.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b5a…2e45backed Yes5c379.6$18 inLost-$18.22333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes5c338$15 inLost-$15.3323.1%1 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes4c333.51$14 inLost-$14.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes5c324.84$15 inLost-$14.873016.7%5 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c300$13 inLost-$12.5385.3%2 W · 36 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes3c299.99$10 inLost-$10.4230%0 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c274.91$14 inLost-$13.67254%1 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-70.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c221.6$13 inLost-$12.96643.1%2 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c215.01$13 inLost-$13.28722.8%2 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6079…4943backed Yes5c198.22$10 inLost-$10.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ab…3ac7backed Yes6c186.38$12 inLost-$11.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+109.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab9…710dbacked Yes8c136.86$11 inLost-$11.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa409…247ebacked Yes8c119.75$10 inLost-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.