TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,818 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x27da…d24abacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c7,258$29 inLost-$28.663187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2c…898abacked Yes0c6,392$14 inLost-$13.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c4,629$14 inLost-$14.41616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-75.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes0c4,496$16 inLost-$15.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes4c2,896$116 inLost-$116170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9105…4c47backed Yes1c2,272$30 inLost-$30160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Yes1c2,262$19 inLost-$18.882236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes1c1,817$15 inLost-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes2c1,556$35 inLost-$34.863016.7%5 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc470…7bc5backed Yes2c1,400$28 inLost-$28.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9532…6086backed Yes1c1,375$20 inLost-$19.6750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc22e…40c0backed Yes2c1,313$20 inLost-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-71.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes1c1,208$11 inLost-$10.68150%0 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes1c1,167$12 inLost-$11.71020%2 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+366%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe573…5d40backed Yes2c1,059$25 inLost-$2570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc908…f949backed Yes1c1,017$12 inLost-$12.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x394c…a639backed Yes3c786.24$25 inLost-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022c…4873backed Yes5c640.64$30 inLost-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes2c579.99$11 inLost-$10.8580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x716a…5861backed Yes2c526.68$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes39c413.78$160 inLost-$160.11127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-53.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes24c337.25$80 inLost-$79.994250%21 W · 21 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes39c51.41$20 inLost-$202020%4 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.