Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x298f9d564dc962d3e7d4fe06066aac6b5dc0e983876d7092e101ca73a09a06f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $353,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $384,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $353,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1732…795bbacked No | 0c | 51,789$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…e386backed No | 6c | 13,332$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 5c | 11,212$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 3c | 8,431$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 3c | 5,227$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.73 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked No | 9c | 4,000$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 5c | 3,650$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 7c | 3,088$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 5c | 3,070$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.69 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…3d75backed No | 8c | 2,781$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…04e0backed No | 1c | 2,700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed No | 6c | 2,621$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed No | 7c | 2,580$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…55cabacked No | 1c | 2,413$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 4c | 2,206$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.16 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…bdf4backed No | 4c | 2,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 38c | 1,556$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.42 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked No | 7c | 1,495$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,417$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.42 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 6c | 1,417$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…7075backed No | 2c | 1,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246a…b318backed No | 8c | 1,198$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,139$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 7c | 1,030$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 5c | 1,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 976.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 2c | 948.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +366%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 7c | 936.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 1c | 860.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +559.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…54babacked No | 7c | 758.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e0…e649backed No | 6c | 726.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 3c | 615.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…23f2backed No | 3c | 609.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 5c | 600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 6c | 599.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 6c | 575.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…5d40backed No | 5c | 544.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 5c | 541.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 5c | 522.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…14ecbacked No | 7c | 507.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 2c | 503.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.94 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7e87backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +1,205.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…dce6backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21bb…3c5ebacked No | 11c | 496.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed No | 6c | 469.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e97…16debacked No | 6c | 468.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked No | 2c | 466.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…fcb4backed No | 7c | 443.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 79c | 435.31$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked No | 5c | 434.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…7e3dbacked No | 5c | 430.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 21c | 425$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0128…55f6backed No | 7c | 415.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…30f2backed No | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…2527backed No | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…40c0backed No | 5c | 393.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked No | 6c | 374.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd823…e01bbacked No | 5c | 354.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1627…e3d4backed No | 8c | 345.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…91dfbacked No | 5c | 337.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…ec46backed No | 7c | 325.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 24c | 306.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.11 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…465dbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 4cpaid | +2,757.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29fe…c819backed No | 7c | 297.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…fe06backed No | 4c | 291.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 70c | 286.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 30c | 286.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…10d9backed No | 5c | 283.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 272.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.25 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…1d90backed No | 6c | 263.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 33c | 250.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ce…445ebacked No | 6c | 247.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 5c | 241.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.65 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…b2e1backed No | 6c | 230.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1e…5e19backed No | 9c | 222.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked No | 7c | 220.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…b99bbacked No | 7c | 219.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 6c | 209.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 60c | 205$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a6…4aa8backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…359abacked No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 75c | 176.45$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed No | 34c | 174.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf3…34e3backed No | 6c | 173.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…6e24backed No | 15c | 170.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e58…4668backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 7c | 144.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bb…f345backed No | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 42c | 130$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0621…9c15backed No | 9c | 118.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 107.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…c283backed No | 12c | 98.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked Yes | 75c | 85.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…398ebacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb3…9a5fbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 27, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 6, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 8, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.